Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Damir Dzumhur Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/20/25

The second preview of the day comes from the clay of the ATP’s Rio Open as we look at an incredible opportunity for a pair of players usually found down on the Challenger Tour. It’s Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Damir Dzumhur for a spot in the quarterfinals.

Dzumhur’s win probability is just under 40%, while Ugo Carabelli is favoured to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.

Jon Reid’s Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Damir Dzumhur prediction is for Dzumhur to win.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Damir Dzumhur Prediction: Back Underdog in Evenly Matched Tilt

• Prediction: Dzumhur to win
• Best Odds: 2.55
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on February 20th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Our first preview focused on a player that has been overvalued fairly consistently this season. This one focuses on a player who has been a tad undervalued after a great year on clay and slow courts on the Challenger circuit.

Dzumhur played a solid match in the opening round against a clay court veteran as a large underdog and this time around he takes on a more manageable foe in Ugo Carabelli, while still being a fair-sized outsider.

I’ll back him here for a few reasons. The first is that he’s clearly played well on the surface in the last year. Even concerns regarding the quality of competition is eased by the fact that his Argentinian opponent on Thursday is himself a Challenger Tour calibre kind of guy.

He also doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, while also not lacking anything that stands out either. That is exactly how one would describe the game of Ugo Carabelli as well.

WIth how many close matches Ugo Carabelli plays and his own lack of offensive prowess, I can’t have Dzumhur as being given a sub-40% chance to win this match.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Recent Form

The 25-year-old is in this tournament as a lucky loser after being taken out in a lengthy match on Sunday by Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera.

The world No. 91 is a three set machine which speaks to his incredible solidity that borders on pesky, but also his inability to dictate play or play much of anything in the way of offensively-minded tennis.

Though he’s in his preferred conditions (South American clay), I’m not convinced he should ever be a big favourite against anyone that is halfway decent in the consistency department and who is proficient on slow courts.

These matches turn into a battle far more often than not with him and this one should be no different.

Damir Dzumhur Recent Form

What to make of Dzumhur’s start to the year. It’s been a bit all over the place. A poor start down under, followed by a strong showing for Bosnia at the Davis Cup and now a 2-2 start to the clay season. The two wins were both as an underdog, so he gets credit for that, and one of the losses came in a third set tiebreak after he’d won the opening set by six games to love. That match saw him priced around 3.00.

I’m actually pretty impressed with how well he’s competed to this point down in South America and now he’s playing a guy who doesn’t generate a whole lot of offence and that he should be able to hang with from the baseline.

Considering how well he’s performed as an underdog to this point, and how many matches he won on the surface last season, I’m operating on the assumption that he’s been undervalued by most and will look to cash in with a nicely-priced underdog wager.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Damir Dzumhur H2H – Stat of the Match

This will be the first encounter between these two.

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