Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/11/25

Our second preview of the day goes back to another favourite from Thursday’s action at the ATP Monte Carlo Masters. It’s Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Lorenzo Musetti as we look to the world No. 8 to continue his title defence on the Mediterranean.

Musetti’s win probability is above 43%, while Tsitsipas is favoured to win at 1.71 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s  Tsitsipas vs Musetti prediction is for Tsitsipas to win.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction: Defending Champ to Continue Building Form in Monte Carlo

• Prediction: Tsitsipas to win & Tsitsipas -2 Games
• Best Odds: 1.71 & 1.93
• Bookmaker: SX Betting Exchange
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 12:45 am UK Time on April 11th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Our other preview is going to look familiar to daily readers as well. Once again, we’re backing the same guy we put our money behind on Thursday.

It’s not something I hesitate to do either. In my mind, Tsitsipas is still one of the best clay courters in the world of men’s tennis and with him being clear of almost anyone not named Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner at this stage, I struggle to think that against someone like Musetti he shouldn’t be a much larger favourite.

It should be noted that this is not a slight at Musetti. He’s a great player and should have a huge amount of crowd support in Monte Carlo (it’s near the Italian border and Italian players are consistently backed by the crowds at the event).

It’s to say that relative to Tsitsipas, I don’t think he wins as often as these odds would imply. He’s played the Greek close in the past on clay, but has yet to get over the line against him and he hasn’t exactly been at his best in 2025.

I don’t think Tsitsipas should be a four game favourite as he was in previous matches. I do think a -2.5 or -3 handicap would be much more fair than what we’re seeing at the moment though.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Recent Form

Much like Alex de Minaur (our other go-to guy this week), Tsitsipas has absolutely dominated since dropping the first set he played in Monte Carlo 4-6 to Jordan Thompson.

His next four sets? 6-4, 6-2, 6-1, 6-1. What impresses me more though is how he made a pretty consistent player and strong defender look on the court in Nuno Borges to move onto the quarterfinals.

It wasn’t as clean as the score may indicate, but the way he bullied Borges around the court, had him a half step late to his spots and then unable to control his next shot due to the weight on the Tsitsipas forehand was incredible.

It’s the reason he has to be considered a top-5 player on slower clay courts on the men’s tour, despite struggling mightily in recent years when forced to play on hard courts and quicker surfaces.

The backhand is masked nicely and even when he leaves it short, it’s not as easy to attack with big pace because he has enough spin on that shot as well.

It’s no coincidence that he’s won this tournament several times before and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to do it again. Musetti is the best opponent he’s played to date in Monaco, but the prices reflect that and I still think he’s got a bit too much to his game for the Italian to deal with.

Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

Thursday was a much-needed convincing performance from Musetti, after a few relatively shaky three setters to get his campaign in Monaco started.

The caveat is that Matteo Berrettini had his foot wrapped, took a medical timeout for it and though facing zero break points in a match is a solid accomplishment, it should also be kept in mind that it was likely an outlier kind of performance.

Consider the fact that Berrettini had not failed to generate a break chance in a clay match in over 2,800 days. Some of that may be on the fact that he’s not the greatest mover or returner, and some may be on the potential foot issue, but my point is that I wouldn’t expect such a clean performance again on Friday.

I don’t think his form has been all that convincing this year on the whole. A lot of matches where stronger players with a bit more pop have had him on the ropes. Yes, he’s come back to beat the likes of Quentin Halys, Felix Auger Aliassime, Bu Yunchaokete and Jiri Lehecka ot win, but Tsitsipas on clay is a different beast.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Lorenzo Musetti H2H – Stat of the Match

Tsitsipas has yet to lose to Musetti, with a 5-0 lead, including four wins on the red dirt. Thing is, Musetti has been competitive to a certain extent in each of his losses. I do think the quality of Tsitsipas and superior clay court offence should shine through in the end and that has been the case in the past.

I do think anyone throwing around that 5-0 number without informing you that Musetti has kept many of them close isn’t painting the full picture though,

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