Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Karen Khachanov Prediction, Free Picks, Odds, H2H, 4/12/24

We wrap up our week of previews with quarterfinal action on Friday from the ATP’s Rolex Monte Carlo Masters. Our Tsitsipas vs Khachanov prediction gets the day going from Monaco. Khachanov’s win probability is 35.6% while Tsitsipas is favored to win at 1.49 odds. The handicap is three games and the total game line is 22.5.

Tsitsipas vs Khachanov Prediction: Similar Refrain This Week with Tsitsipas Undervalued

• Prediction: Tsitsipas -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.99
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on April 12th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’ve said it all week and I’ll keep harping on the point that Tsitsipas is still one of the best clay court tennis players in the world, and his prices this week in the betting markets have not done him justice. We’re not in Madrid where the conditions allow opponents with a bit more power to rush him and keep things closer, but in Monte Carlo, an event he’s won twice before.

I did not anticipate the market still undervaluing Tsitsipas after a strong first match, an incredibly dominant second match, and then a third match that saw him beat a fellow top player Alexander Zverev in straight sets (he had two points to win that won by an eight-game margin too).

Yet here we are, with the world No. 12 once more being valued as a slight favorite against Khachanov.

Fair play to the Russian for beating Daniil Medvedev in straight sets on Thursday, but he now takes on another player with tremendous quality and far more clay-court pedigree. Yet he’s being given a much better chance to pull off the upset this time.

I feel like I’ll be betting on Tsitsipas until he loses this spring, the way the market is pricing him at the moment. Our Tsitsipas vs Karen Khachanov prediction is for Tsitsipas to cover the three-game handicap.

Pop on over to the expert insights page for more from Monte Carlo.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Recent Form

Though Tsitsipas doesn’t have the dominant form or top-5 pedigree at the moment of Medvedev, I find it hard to believe Medvedev could be in the 1.40-1.45 range as a favorite and Tsitsipas closer to 1.60. Sure, there may be a quality dropoff at the moment, but keep in mind, we get to back a much more natural clay courter in Tsitsipas to help make up for that.

We also know the market has undervalued Tsitsipas all week. We’ve correctly identified those mistakes all week. You’d think at some point we’d see some course correction, but my numbers continue to show him as undervalued.

His first serve and forehand combination are so effective on clay, that the backhand continues to look much less vulnerable in Monte Carlo, which shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, and he continues to put together straight-set victories at a nice clip in slower conditions on his preferred surface.

Since last year, when he won in Monte Carlo, Rome, and Roland Garros, he’s done so in straight sets 14 times in 16 wins. Madrid is a different story, but as I said, that track considering the elevated conditions closes the gap between him and his opponents.

With the handicap being just a one-break-of-serve margin and the fact that he rarely drops sets in matches he wins, I’m happy to give up a slight head start, rather than pay a more expensive price to take him to win the match.

Karen Khachanov Recent Form

I’ve been impressed with Khachanov for a few reasons this season. The first is that his game has looked so strong at times. Big serve, strong forehand, decent movement, surface versatility. He’s done a good job in the last few years rounding out his game.

The second reason I’m impressed with him? The fact that even when he hasn’t looked at his best, he’s found ways through matches. After a dominant first in Miami against Francisco Cerundolo, he was the second-best player, yet managed to sneak through a deciding set tiebreak. Against Cam Norrie in the opening match here, he should’ve been forced into a third set as well. Then in a rematch with Cerundolo, he had patches of head scratching, poor play in the second set, and needed a third once again.

That‘s a conflicting positive aspect of one’s game. On the one hand, it shows you’ve proved your mettle in tough situations. On the other, it means that far too often this year, your level has not been high enough.

With the caliber of the opponent increasing drastically in this next match (Medvedev looked off for much of his last match), I’m not sure he can get away with playing at a somewhat poor level.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Karen Khachanov H2H – Stat of the Match

This is a series that Tsitsipas has dominated in the past, even though the vast majority of the matches have been played on hard courts – which favor Khachanov a bit more than they would Tsitsipas.

The elo discrepancy here is fairly large, with Tsitsipas’ lead being over 170 points in the blended clay rating and growing to nearly 300 points when looking just at the raw clay elo data.

Those kinds of numbers would point to a lopsided Tsitsipas win.

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