Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tallon Griekspoor Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/28/25

The first preview for Friday to end a terrible week of results, we look at Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tallon Griekspoor from the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships ATP 500.

Griekspoor’s win probability is only 40%, while Tsitsipas is favoured to win at 1.53 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 25.

Jon Reid’s Tsitsipas vs Griekspoor prediction is for Griekspoor to win.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tallon Griekspoor Prediction: Tsitsipas Overvalued in Tight Match

• Prediction: Griekspoor 1st Set ML & Griekspoor to win
• Best Odds: 2.30 & 2.44
• Bookmaker: bet365 & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 1/10 & 1/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on February 28th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

As I continue to watch bets decided in a third set in these previews capitulate and lose (now 1-10 on the season and why I highly encourage people to try to increase volume to offset the variance that has hit previews like this so hard), I’m going to go ahead and curse one of the Cinderella stories of the week.

Apologies in advance to Griekspoor, but this should be a much closer line for a few reasons. Yes, he’s been lucky this week in a way (more on that in a minute), but Tsitsipas hasn’t exactly been dominant either and has needed some magic of his own to reach this point.

These two are both fairly serve-reliant, with neither the most adept returner. I’d say that Griekspoor is more comfortable on hard courts than the clay oriented Tsitsipas, and with all that considered, I have this as a very close match and am happy to have a ticket backing the nicely priced underdog in my pocket.

With Griekspoor having played more tennis in the last few days than his Greek counterpart, I’ll have some of my stake on the first set moneyline as well, but I do still think there’s some value to be had on the full match as well.

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Stefanos Tsitsipas Recent Form

I spoke about both players contesting this match being a tad fortunate, and they have been in their own ways. Tsitsipas has won each of his last two matches thanks to a first set tiebreak and then managing a third set after being crushed in the middle stanza. That resulted in the odd scenario where he lost more games than both Karen Khachanov and Matteo Berrettini, but managed to win both matches.

That’s not something you see everyday and in conditions that are not the most conducive to success for him, I’m not sure he can keep the streak alive.

This has, however, surely come as a relief for the world No. 11 who seemed to be in tailspin as the tour passed him by on any courts quicker than clay.

Perhaps he can parlay this week into a successful Indian Wells campaign leading into the clay season, where he has a chunk of ranking points to defend.

Tallon Griekspoor Recent Form

Much like Tsitsipas, we have to talk about how on earth Griekspoor has reached this point. He has a pair of impressive underdog wins under his belt in the last two rounds against Ugo Humbert and Daniil Medvedev. The latter was especially impressive simply because the Russian looks to be back to playing strong tennis again this week.

Thing is, he had to save match points in the opening round against Roman Safiullin, come back from a set down against Humbert and then save a load of break points, including match points once more against Medvedev. There’s some luck involved with that, but let’s also acknowledge it’s a step forward for the Dutchman.

For too long Griekspoor has shown us he can compete and keep things close with the big names on tour, but not actually finish the job and pull off the upset. He’s certainly done that this week.

The fatigue could be a concern with this being his fourth straight day on court off one or two physical three setters (and a third that wasn’t as taxing), but I can’t see this one having all that many long points and service games, so I’m not overly concerned.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tallon Griekspoor H2H – Stat of the Match

Tsitsipas leads this head-to-head 2-0, with the old version of Tsitsipas defeating Griekspoor easily in 2023 at the Australian Open and the most recent matchup seeing the second closest result possible with the two splitting tiebreaks before Tsitsipas won 7-5 in the third. That match was in Rotterdam, which should be much more favourable conditions for Tsitsipas than here, so that may be more encouraging that the final result may indicate for our bet.

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