Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Nuno Borges Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/10/25

Our second preview of the day from the ATP’s Monte Carlo Masters comes from the Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Nuno Borges match.

Borges’ win probability is only about 25%, while Tsitsipas is favoured to win at 1.27 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 21.5.

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Jon Reid’s  Tsitsipas vs Borges prediction is for Tsitsipas to cover the handicap.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Nuno Borges Prediction: Tsitsipas Too Strong for Borges

• Prediction: Tsitsipas -4 Games
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: SX Betting Exchange
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 4:30 am UK Time on April 10th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

This handicap is going to be fairly short. Put simply, Tsitsipas is back on the surface and in the type of conditions that make him an elite, top-5 type player. He’s just a tier or two clear of his Portuguese opponent.

Then there’s the fact that this is the type of player that he tends to fare well against and post fairly dominant scorelines against as well.

Finally, although Borges has become a mainstay in the top-50 in the men’s rankings, he still lacks a bit of power and in slower conditions his serve becomes more vulnerable and he tends to be pushed around more by the guys at the top of the sport. With Tsitsipas having plenty of offence to his game and also being among the best in the sport in places like Monte Carlo, Rome and Paris, I think it’s reasonable to make the case for this handicap being a -4.5 or -5 number.

We also know that when Tsitsipas wins the opening coin toss, he always chooses to serve first. That’s something that increases the likelihood of a 6-3 first set, and thus a cover on -4 games more likely. I think the market may have one or two of these factors baked in, but I don’t think we’d be seeing the resistance at the four game mark if it were taking all of this into account.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Recent Form

After a shocking outright win in Dubai, Tsitsipas’ honeymoon run ended relatively early in both of the Sunshine Double stops, going out in the round of 16 in California and then the third round in Miami.

It’s not entirely surprising that either Holger Rune or Sebastian Korda managed to beat him on hard courts, but now with him back in more favourable stomping grounds, I think it would be stunning if he were to be defeated by Borges this early in Monte Carlo.

His start was a bit rocky against a quick court specialist as he dropped his first set back on the dirt, but he managed to take over as the match progressed and ended up winning by a four-game margin, despite dropping a set right off the hop.

The time afforded to him on these courts and the higher bounce are both ideal, while his offensive capabilities still play well. His one handed backhand isn’t as vulnerable and doesn’t look rushed nearly as often and it’s pretty clear he’s far more comfortable.

There may be no one whose game improves as we shift to the clay from the hard courts more than Tsitsipas among those at the top of the men’s game.

Nuno Borges Recent Form

The world No. 43’s start to the clay portion of the calendar has been decent in terms of results, but not the most inspiring in how things have actually played out. His upset of Rune? Via retirement. His second round win needed a hard-fought, tightly-contested battle against a relatively weaponless and out-of-from Pedro Martinez (that also took over three hours).

In Marrakech, he was handled by Roberto Carballes Baena and narrowly got past a Challenger player in his lone win at that tournament.

Ultimately, though he’s worked his way up the rankings, he’s still a fairly middle of the road kind of player in slower conditions. There’s no questioning his fight and consistency. Finishing points? That’s a different question.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Nuno Borges H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone match these two played against one another was just under two years ago now in similarly slow clay conditions in the Italian capital. Tsitsipas won that one 6-3, 6-3 and I’d be delighted with a similar result on Thursday.

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