Learner Tien vs Bernard Tomic Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 13/9/24

In our last preview of the week, I want to delve a bit more into the Learner Tien vs Bernard Tomic match from the Las Vegas Tennis Open on the ATP’s Challenger Tour.

Tomic’s win probability is only a tad above the 20% mark, while Tien is favored to win at 1.21 odds. The handicap is five games and the total games line is 20.5.

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Our Tien vs Tomic prediction is for Tomic to win.

Learner Tien vs Bernard Tomic Prediction: Tomic Not a Likely Winner, but Undervalued at Odds on Offer

• Prediction: Tomic to win
• Best Odds: 4.75
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 1/10

Odds updated at 2:30 am UK Time on September 13th, 2024. 

Knowing what we know about Tomic, I’m not sure we can trust him with the game handicap or the total games over markets. While they could cover in a straight sets loss, considering not only his lack of motivation at times, penchant to tank sets and matches when behind, and the style Tien brings to the table that will make him work more than he likes to, if he loses it’ll likely be quickly.

That said, he’s far too talented and has shown patches on serve that have been far too strong to be this large of an underdog in this contest. Tien is a solid returner, but he lacks power and that means there is a path to victory for Tomic if he can display patience and use his power to his advantage. That’s a big ask though, and it’s part of the reason that he’s such an incredibly large underdog.

I’m happy to get risky on Friday the 13th though and back the underdog to win at a very high price for a small stake.

Learner Tien Recent Form

It’s hard to assess where Tien’s implied probabilities should be. He’s 41-6 and certainly commands some level of respect in betting markets, but his resume has its blemishes, whether it’s bad losses or close wins against players that someone in the price range he’s consistently in should be dominating.

The teenager has incredible control and consistency, as well as tennis IQ for someone of his age, but he does lack the kind of offensive firepower that warrants these kinds of odds.

The one big advantage Tien possesses is having the ability to extend rallies and make his opponents really remain patient and not over-hit. Tomic tends to get lackadaisical at the best of times, let alone when forced to play eight or nine shots to win a point.

Tien’s ability to hit with pinpoint accuracy and be a wall from the baseline are his best assets going up against the talented, but disappointing Aussie.

Bernard Tomic Recent Form

This is Tomic’s third quarterfinal appearance in as many Challenger events, dating back to a pair of August Challengers played on clay.

He has fallen at this stage each time though. It exemplifies both how he can reach this stage with relative ease, while also demonstrating just how frustrating he can be to cheer for by bailing out of tournaments with minimal effort.

He’ll need to lock in to pull off this upset, but he has more firepower and a more reliable serve. The opportunity may be there if he’s up for the test.

Learner Tien vs Bernard Tomic H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the mercurial veteran and the up-and-coming American.

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