Learner Tien vs Corentin Moutet Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/17/25

The second preview of the day comes in an all-lefty contest as we look more at Learner Tien vs Corentin Moutet from the men’s draw at the Australian Open.

Moutet’s win probability is about 50%, with Tien entering as a 1.28 odds favourite. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 37.5.

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Jon Reid’s Tien vs Moutet prediction is for Learner Tien to get off to a quick start.

Learner Tien vs Corentin Moutet Prediction: Younger Lefty Should Start Well Against Emotional Opponent

• Prediction: Tien 1st Set -1.5 Games
• Best Odds: 2.20
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on January th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

This is the second time this week I’ve elected to go with this market and it’s for similar reasons. The first time around, we backed Zizou Bergs because of his lack of reliability in best of five set tennis, especially coming off a long week. This time, it’s not so much that I doubt Tien’s physicality, but that I don’t know if a teenager that is coming off the two longest matches of his career will hold up for yet another physical match.

That said, he showcased why so many are high on him. He may not have the most powerful game, but in this match, that should be fine, as his opponent – fellow lefty Moutet – is also underpowered.

Tien is already more mature and composed on court as well, despite the Frenchman being several years older.

I trust Tien’s consistency, composure and rally tolerance, while his athleticism should help negate much of what Moutet does well. With this not likely to be the most serve-oriented match we’ve ever seen, I have no problem going for Tien to win the first set by any score other than 7-6 when I’m getting 28 cents on the dollar more profit than the first set moneyline.

Learner Tien Recent Form

Last year Tien was hyped up to an incredible extent thanks to his extended win streak at lower levels in the spring and made a run that nearly saw him break the world’s top-100. He should be there in the next rankings after a qualifying campaign that has resulted in two main draw wins as well.

He plays an incredibly intelligent style, utilises forehand slices defensively to completely neutralise his opponent’s advantage in rallies, hits incredibly well placed first serves from the AD side with regularity and his backhand down-the-line is a real weapon.

The problem is, the most important aspects in today’s men’s game are the serve and forehand. Those are lacking with the young American. Luckily for him, this match isn’t one where he’ll be severely outmatched in either department.

He has a big tactical and matchup advantage, but after long matches in the opening rounds and coming off a career win, I’m not going to trust him if this goes four hours again. I’ll look to back the matchup advantage when it’s most likely to be present – at the beginning of the match.

Corentin Moutet Recent Form

This is the first tournament of the season for the always-entertaining  world No. 69, and it’s obviously been a success to this point. As a middling, underpowered player, whose temper and emotional volatility do him no favours, the third round of a major played on quicker courts has to be considered a success.

He first toppled the big hitting Aussie Alexei Popyrin from 4-6 down before coming back to beat an American Challenger journeyman in a closely-contested four set match.

Moutet’s game is based on physicality, variety and defensive prowess. The problem is, with that kind of game, you’d want someone that can stay focused and composed for long stretches to elicit the errors needed to win and construct points.

Learner Tien vs Corentin Moutet H2H – Stat of the Match

Tien is so new to the professional game (as early as last year he was still playing ITF tournaments) that he hasn’t yet played against Moutet.

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