Frances Tiafoe vs Cameron Norrie Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/22/24

We’re onto the final week of ATP 500 tournaments, with the Vienna and Basel double on offer. Our first preview for Tuesday comes from the Erste Bank Open and features Frances Tiafoe vs Cameron Norrie.

Norrie’s win probability is under 40%, while Tiafoe is favored to win at 1.53 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s prediction for Tiafoe vs Norrie is for Tiafoe to cover the handicap.

Frances Tiafoe vs Cameron Norrie Prediction: Tiafoe Too Strong for Current Version of Norrie

• Prediction: Tiafoe -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.93
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds updated 1:00 am UK Time on October 22nd, 2024. 

Am I a little weary of the post-U.S. Open results from Tiafoe? Sure. There are a few things to note though, with his three losses all coming to competent players and players at their best on quicker hard courts. None of them were real blowouts either, and he didn’t throw in the towel in the one match he was well behind in.

I still believe in his incredible talent, and luckily for him, he is up against one of the players in even worse form in the opening round.

Norrie has been downright bad since the clay season, but the betting markets continue to price him up as if he was a top-25 mainstay rankings-wise. In reality, he’s fallen out of the top-50 and deservedly so. He’s never had much power, but even his precision has recently abandoned him. If one doesn’t have the power or the consistency, what’s left? I’m not sure how this handicap isn’t north of the three-game mark.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Frances Tiafoe Recent Form

I mentioned above that I’m not too distressed over some of the losses the last few weeks for Tiafoe. He’s lost to a Brandon Nakashima who has revitalised his career this year, a ROman Safiullin who has been in good form, and an Aleksandar Vukic who benefited from the altitude and quicker conditions.

All hard-court players. All prefer quicker hard courts to boot.

Tiafoe still has the better serve, court coverage, forehand and at the moment, even consistency. The last one is where Norrie once was able to level out the talent mismatch, but since that has deserted him, this feels like a match that could be one-way traffic in the world No. 15’s favor.

Cameron Norrie Recent Form

Other than beating Jack Draper at Wimbledon and Casper Ruud in Melbourne, I’m not sure I can find one decent win on the Brit’s resume this season.

Of late, it’s been even worse. He doesn’t pass the eye test and he certainly hasn’t looked good on paper. He was sent packing at a French Challenger in the quarterfinals a few weeks ago after having served for the match against an underpowered Luca van Assche, he was beaten routinely by a middling tour regular in Miomir Kecmanovic last week and the match prior to his injury saw him lose to a poor version of Rafael Nadal, who has since announced his retirement plans.

At the moment, there is just very little to like about his game. Even his serve isn’t the most potent, and that means even the Tiafoe weakness (his return game) may be live to succeed in this particular matchup.

Frances Tiafoe vs Cameron Norrie H2H – Stat of the Match

Norrie leads the series 2-1, but context is important. Norrie hasn’t beaten Tiafoe in a professional match in 3.5 years and the last time they met, Tiafoe won 6-4, 6-4. Now, that’s not even taking into account the fact that Norrie has dropped off a cliff form-wise in 2024.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.