France Tiafoe vs Dan Evans Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/17/24

Our first preview of the day comes from the Almaty Open in Kazakhstan. It’s one of the three ATP 250 tournaments on offer this week. Let’s take a look at Frances Tiafor vs Dan Evans.

Evans’ win probability is only 30%, while Tiafoe is favored to win at 1.33 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Tiafoe vs Evans prediction is for Evans to upset Tiafoe.

Frances Tiafoe vs Dan Evans Prediction: Quick Conditions to Help 

• Prediction: Over 22.5 Games & Evans to win
• Best Odds: 1.88 & 3.40
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle & bet365
• Stakes: 2/10 & 1/10

Odds updated at 3:30 am UK Time on October 17th, 2024. 

He did struggle in Shanghai against Thiago Seyboth Wild, but that saw the up-and-coming Brazilian hit his spots very well and it ended in a third set tiebreak.

He’s qualified once again in Almaty though and through three matches has only dropped one set against the powerful and in-form Bu Yunchaokete.

He does prefer quicker courts and the altitude in Almaty does help players find more cheap points on serve and thus more holds of serve. That also means we see more close sets and matches, and that’s when I prefer to back larger underdogs.

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Frances Tiafoe Recent Form

The 2024 season hasn’t been a great one for Tiafoe. He did have a strong summer on home soil in Washington (though in a watered-down field with many of the top players at the Olympics that week), Cincinnati and the U.S. Open.

Other than that, there haven’t been many deep runs. It’s odd, considering how talented he is. Tiafoe has a big serve, a strong forehand, moves well and his shotmaking is as entertaining as it comes.

The point construction, poor errors from leading positions in rallies and the poor returning costs him though, and since losing the U.S. Open semifinal against Taylor Fritz, he’s just 1-2.

Dan Evans Recent Form

Though most were only qualifying wins, Evans does have five victories in his last six matches. None were against superstars, but Yasutaka Uchiyama, Alex Bolt and Yunchaokete are all at their best in quicker conditions and Evans handled those tests with aplomb.

I think his ability to play a higher margin backhand with his slice, and his serve becoming a more effective weapon with the altitude, he has the game to compete with Tiafoe.

In terms of motivation – which can be important this time of year – Evans has a lot of ground to make up and work to do with his ranking now out of the top 150. If he wants to get back to a position where he can enter the main draws of tour-level tournaments again, then he needs to rack up the wins in the next month.

Perhaps he’s thinking about retirement as he is in his mid-30s, but I’d expect him to look to make another push. He’s playing Challenger tournaments in the coming weeks, which I can’t see someone expecting to retire from the sport doing.

Frances Tiafoe vs Dan Evans H2H – Stat of the Match

This has been a pretty tight series in the past. These two met three times last year on hard courts, with Tiafoe winning two of them. One, however, was via retirement where Evans was leading and the other took three sets. Overall, the series is 5-4 in the American’s favor.

I’m not totally sold on Tiafoe’s motivation at this stage. Year-end finals are out of the question and a 250 in Kazakhstan doesn’t exactly feel like an event someone like Tiafoe would prioritise.

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