Jordan Thompson vs Alex Michelsen Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/31/24

We’re onto the second round at the ATP’s Brisbane International and I’m looking to back the home favourite in the Jordan Thompson vs Alex Michelsen match.

Michelsen’s win probability is at 44%, while Thompson is favoured to win at 1.70 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 23.

Jon Reid’s Thompson vs Michelsen prediction is for Thompson to win.

Jordan Thompson vs Alex Michelsen Prediction: Trust Thompson in Quick Court Battle

• Prediction: Thompson to win
• Best Odds: 1.70
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on December 31st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

As someone who doesn’t have a whole lot of belief in Michelsen despite his ranking, it’s not exactly a surprise that I’m opposing him here.

I don’t think he’s quite as good as his ranking would indicate, with a slew of smart scheduling decisions being the primary driver in his rise in my opinion. I also think that his ceiling potential wise is rather low, with his baseline game being a bit too simple at the moment and his first serve not quite big enough to make up for it.

His opponent is also coming off a great 2024 season by his standards, has the physical advantage and is a pretty decent quick courter and serve in his own right. I think this could be a year we see Michelsen take a bit of a step back and I’m going to try and get out ahead of it early on this season, beginning with this matchup.

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Jordan Thompson Recent Form

Though the 2024 season wasn’t all positive, it was still the best season of the 30-year-old’s career. Armed with a strong first serve that doesn’t usually get brought up in conversations about big servers, Thompson is more than capable of generating a lot of cheap points when he lands that first delivery.

He also plays a rock solid game from the baseline and more than anyone else, doesn’t seem to be bothered by long matches or hot and humid conditions. Whether it’s on home soil in Australia or in the humidity of Mexico, the Aussie is able to grind from the baseline point-in, point-out and force his opponents to match him physically.

I love that combination and with his proficiency on quicker surfaces, he should be right at home in this one.

If you’re someone that believes a raucous Australian crowd could play a factor, that’s another box ticked.

He’s like Michelsen in the sense that a lot of his success came at the lower level tournaments on the main tour a season ago, but I like his ability to hang in just about every department and do think he has the physical edge against the youngster as well.

Alex Michelsen Recent Form

As I mentioned above, Michelsen is part of a group of a few young American players that I still believe are a tad overvalued, simply because a lot of their success in recent years has come against weaker fields and is a by-product of theri scheduling choices.

Sure, Michelsen has a decent first serve that will certainly play well in these conditions, but the really nice backhand isn’t as useful against the solid Thompson as it would be in most matchups, and his forehand is fairly plain.

I’m not huge on his performance in the first round where he was overvalued as a big favourite against Chris O’Connell and if the last Aussie Michelsen played hadn’t have looked downright poor in the third set tiebreak and from 3-1 up in the third set, it’s likely we’d be talking about two Australians battling for a spot in the quarters right now.

Michelsen isn’t necessarily someone that I worry about breaking down physically, but I do think coming off a long match and taking on Thompson means that does have to be considered if this one were to drag on. He also took a medical timeout last round in the third set down a break of serve, but that was more likely a tactical ploy rather than an actual physical issue.

Jordan Thompson vs Alex Michelsen H2H – Stat of the Match

Thompson has won both matches against Michelsen. The first came in 2023, when Michelsen was still a very raw player.

The second instance occurred last season, but it was a 7-5 third set in a match that saw Michelsen race out to a 6-0 lead, so it was pretty close.

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