Taylor Fritz vs Holger Rune Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 10/9/24

Our first preview of the day comes from the Rolex Shanghai Masters, as most of the big names on the ATP Tour managed to reach the final 16. Wednesday is sure to provide some cracking tennis as we have some incredible matchups across the eight contests set to take place.

Let’s look a little more at Taylor Fritz vs Holger Rune in an all-top-15 encounter.

Rune’s win probability is about 38.5%, while Fritz is favored to win at 1.56 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Fritz vs Rune prediction is for Fritz to come away with the win.

Taylor Fritz vs Holger Rune Prediction: Fritz Matches Up Well With Talented Young Gun

• Prediction: Fritz -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.96
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 12:30 am UK Time on October 9th, 2024. 

Very close to adding another point to this bet, but I’ll keep it at a standard staking size for now. I think Rune has displayed some decent play this week, but he did so in matchups that were pretty favorable for him.

Now he takes on a top-10 player with big-time weapons and an elite hard-court game. While he played one of the bigger servers on tour in his first match in Matteo Berrettini, his game wasn’t nearly well-rounded enough to beat the young Dane. In his last match, he played a big hitter in Jiri Lehecka, but his game is far too volatile and he doesn’t have the stability that someone like Fritz possesses.

Fritz has the weapons, the consistency and I even think the improvements he’s made on his backhand are going to help him out here. He certainly doesn’t have a better backhand stroke than Rune, but I don’t think it’ll be the weakness it would’ve been in this matchup a year or two ago.

More previews from around the world of sport can be found on the expert insights page.

Taylor Fritz Recent Form

Since reaching the U.S. Open final, Fritz has started to find his game again, after looking a bit below his best against Arthur Fils in Tokyo and in his first match here against Terence Atmane.

His last match was a much better effort – especially on the return side of things – beating Yosuke Watanuki (a quick court specialist) in a fairly routine fashion. It was Watanuki who nearly eliminated him from this tournament last season, just as a frame of reference for how much the Japanese pro enjoys playing in Shanghai.

Now, this is a step up in terms of opponent, but Fritz has the weapons to stick with Rune and to take advantage of the conditions favoring big serves, while also showing more life on return and being a far less erratic player from the baseline.

He’s an aggressive player, much like Rune, but the difference is he controls said aggression much more effectively.

It is a great matchup and certainly one to watch if you have the time to throw up the stream, but I think Fritz has the edge and it may not be as close as the market believes.

Holger Rune Recent Form

It’s been an up-and-down season for the 21-year-old and the last few months haven’t been any different.

After a respectable showing in Cincinnati, where he was a deciding set tiebreak away from the final, he also managed to reach the semifinals in Tokyo, once more losing in a pair of tiebreaks, this time to the eventual champion.

Now, sandwiched between those two nice results, he also managed to be beaten badly in straight sets by Brandon Nakashima at the U.S. Open and then in straight sets by Yasutaka Uchiyama in Hangzhou.

The real problem with his season (he’s ranked No. 15 in the world, so it’s not like he’s been terrible) is the lack of consistency in results and the fact that he’s repeatedly lost as a favorite.

I admire the attempt to add more aggression to his game and his improved serve and forehand, but he’s sacrificed a lot of the solidity that got him near the top of the game in the first place. If he manages to strike a balance between the two, I think he’ll end up where he wants to be: alongside Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in a new-age “Big 3.”

Taylor Fritz vs Holger Rune H2H – Stat of the Match

These two are tied up at 1-1. Fritz won a fairly straightforward match in Miami last year, while Rune leveled things up by coming back from 2-6 down this year in Indian Wells.

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