Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Minaur Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 11/14/24

As we’ve seen several times this week, it’s not always that there is much value on the Nitto ATP Finals, but in the case of Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Minaur, I’ll have a go.

De Minaur’s win probability is about 35%, while Fritz is favoured to win at 1.46 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 23.

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Jon Reid’s Fritz vs de Minaur prediction is for Fritz to cover the handicap.

Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Minaur Prediction: Back Fritz to Win and Move On

• Prediction: Fritz -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.96
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 07:30 am UK Time on November 14th, 2024. 

A win here and Fritz is likely into the semifinals. I would like to think that motivation is built into the price here, but either that or Fritz’s much higher level and stronger, more powerful game are being underestimated.

For all intents and purposes, one set lost here and de Minaur is out. He was the worst of the four players entering the round robin stage and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see him sent packing without a singular victory.

He hasn’t been in the greatest form of late, despite a winning record (more on that in a second) and Fritz has been excellent for the most part this season. He has the bigger serve, lands more first serves and has the more powerful game from the baseline.

Motivation, form and matchup all lineup here for the American. I make this line closer to an expensive -3.5 games so there’s plenty of value to attack with the current handicap at -3.

Taylor Fritz Recent Form

Jannik Sinner (twice), Novak Djokovic, Jack Draper and Arthur Fils (add in Carlos Alcaraz if you want to include the Laver Cup – an exhibition event). These are the players that have beaten Fritz since the U.S. Open, where he made the final on home soil.

A few of those players are elite and the other two are big-hitting young guns on the ascent. You could make the case that based on his ranking, de Minaur is among the “elite” but based on his game, I don’t have him anywhere near that category.

His grinding from the baseline once troubled a more erratic Fritz, but I’m not sure that will trouble him quite as much anymore, especially indoors on a medium to medium fast court that should reward Fritz’s booming serve and allow him to keep points shorter.

Give me the in form American to lock up his spot in the final four as he tried to prove himself as the best of the rest.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

Since his return from injury after the U.S. Open, the 25-year-old is now just 7-5 (though he was 7-2 entering this event).

The problem is, even in his wins, he didn’t look all that convincing, needing Jack Draper to physically break down to score the comeback, another fatiguing player in Jakub Mensik for another and then he looked horrible in the second set against Miomir Kecmanovic and was the fortunate recipient of a choke to avoid going three sets.

Then there’s the first set drubbings at the hands of Jan Lennard Struff (also rusty after an injury break) and Roberto Carballes Baena (an underpowered clay courter) that had to come back from to win.

The cherry on top? A loss to underpowered lefty Hugo Gaston.

Those average results (I’m being kind here) caught up with him this week when playing some of the best in the world. He was beaten routinely by both Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev.

I’m still hesitant to trust him at the moment and the struggles landing his first serves this season simply won’t cut it against this calibre of player.

Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Minaur H2H – Stat of the Match

The prior meetings between these two have actually been very kind to de Minaur, including a beatdown on home soil in the United Cup back in January. He’s won six times to Fritz’s three victories, with every match contested on hard or grass courts – favoured by each of these two.

They’ve only played twice since mid-2022 though and with de Minaur looking mediocre at best of late and Fritz much improved and only losing to much tougher competition in the last few months, I’m happy to back the much better player here and take the discount that this head-to-head record is likely affording me.

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