Tallon Griekspoor vs Sebastian Baez Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 28th

Our previews from the men’s draw on Wednesday come from the same court (playing back-to-back!) at the U.S. Open. First up, it’s Tallon Griekspoor vs Sebastian Baez.

Baez’s win probability is only 36%, while Griekspoor is favored to win at 1.51 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 39.

Jon Reid’s Griekspoor vs Baez prediction is for Griekspoor to come away with a comfortable win.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Sebastian Baez Prediction: 1.85 and 1.95 Bets for this one 

• Prediction: Griekspoor -3 Games & Griekspoor -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.85 & 1.95
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds updated at 3:00 am UK Time on August 28th, 2024. 

If this isn’t the perfect second round match for Griekspoor, I don’t know what is. Not only does he get a guy who is essentially a clay court specialist, but in Baez, he plays an underpowered clay court specialist.

Why is that important? Well, Griekspoor has one of the worst return rates among the top 50 players this season on the ATP Tour. That’s because he can get overly aggressive and he doesn’t possess the ability to get powerful first serves back in play to get points started so he can work his way into rallies and eventually apply pressure to his opponent.

This matchup shouldn’t present that issue for him, as Baez tends to struggle with keeping people out of his service games.

With the power and surface edges firmly in Griekspoor’s corner, I would expect the 28-year-old to roll into the third round.

More tennis previews are up now on the expert insights page.

Tallon Griekspoor Recent Form

Since reaching the semis at the grass tournament on home soil back in June, Griekspoor has struggled for wins.

This draw has seemingly provided the perfect remedy. He played another underpowered clay courter in the opening round, dispatching Sumit Nagal in relatively short order. Even if it wasn’t Baez this round, it would’ve been Luciano Darderi – another clay-centric player.

The Nagal match also presents a decent comparison for Baez. Now, Nagal isn’t near Baez’s level, but in terms of style, I think Griekspoor should find that the first match he played will have prepared him well for the task at hand on Wednesday afternoon.

Sebastian Baez Recent Form

Scouring Baez’s hardcourt record this season, we can see he’s managed to win five matches. Now, unlike Daniel Altmaier yesterday who had a few decent victories on his resume, Baez has beaten a slew of fellow clay courters, nearly-retired players or won via retirement.

Other than an outlier win against Marcos Giron in a third-set tiebreak, it’s been an uninspiring season for Baez on this surface.

Even that win against fellow hard courter Luciano Darderi in the first round saw him face a lot of breakpoints. If he’s going to face 15 break points again, he could be in some major trouble. Especially because it’s going to be very hard to generate 17 break chances against the Griekspoor serve.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Sebastian Baez H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played twice, with each winning one match. Those matches happened a long time ago and took place on clay courts though, so I wouldn’t put too much stock into those results.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.