Tallon Griekspoor vs Mackenzie McDonald Prediction, Picks, Odds, News, H2H, June 12th

We’re back to the grind looking for more underdogs that may present value on the grass. The first preview of Wednesday’s action from the Tallon Griekspoor vs Mackenzie McDonald match at the Libema Open. Our Griekspoor vs McDonald prediction is available below. 

McDonald’s win probability comes in around the 30% mark, while Griekspoor is favored to win at 1.30 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Griekspoor vs McDonald Prediction: McDonald Live Against Subpar Returning Griekspoor

• Predictions: Over 22.5 Games, McDonald +1.5 sets & McDonald to win
• Best Odds: 1.89, 1.81 & 3.30
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10, 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 1:40 am UK Time on June 12th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

This is another match that matches the criteria I look for when I’m backing underdogs on grass. First, we have a player to back who prefers quicker surfaces and is comfortable on the grass. Then we also have the favorite as someone who isn’t the strongest returner in men’s tennis and is likely to play close matches that give the underdog a chance.

Griekspoor is fairly fortunate to be in this round, having lost the first set against Miomir Kecmanovic and then was trailing by a break in the deciding set as well. That match was won in three tiebreaks and saw Griekspoor manage just one break of serve. That isn’t an aberration either – the Dutchman has been one of the worst returners among the top 50 ranked players in the men’s game this season. Speed up the courts and that’s a weakness that is only going to be more exploitable.

On the flip side, his power and aggression make him extremely hard to break, which has me believing this match is going to be a tight one far more often than not. That means the price on McDonald to win shouldn’t be so cheap, but it also means there are other ways to attack this match that may be mispriced and will be easier to actually cash in on. Our Griekspoor vs McDonald prediction is for McDonald to keep this closer than the odds imply.

Our other ATP preview is up now on the expert insights page!

Tallon Griekspoor Recent Form

As one would expect with his game style, Griekspoor has played a lot of close matches of late – including on clay.

He hasn’t had the best 2024 season, but he is the defending champion of this tournament and that may well be a big reason in his valuation as a large favorite, despite his struggles to dominate anyone this season.

The serve and forehand can’t be questioned, as they’re both legitimate weapons. His ability to start points on return and work his way into rallies, however? Not so much.

He may very well get through this match, but I’m not sure he should be a large favorite against a McDonald who appears to be shaking the rust off after an injury absence and is no longer playing on his worst surface.

Mackenzie McDonald Recent Form

It’s been a tough season for the 29-year-old American. He missed months through injury and when he was ready to return? The tour was playing on clay – a surface where he struggles to generate offense and didn’t come up playing on a lot as an American and someone who played college tennis in the United States.

Back on the grass now, he should be more competitive. The lower bounce should bring him more comfort and the quicker courts suit his game much more.

He also started a week ago at the Surbiton Challenger, beating quick court specialist (though a Challenger Tour one at best) Alex Bolt, before blowing a lead to the ever-consistent Shintaro Mochizuki. His first round saw him take down the out-of-form Botic van de Zandschulp in three sets.

The key for McDonald will be to try and get into some sort of rhythm against the Griekspoor serve. Being the player that doesn’t have quite as much raw power means the American does need to be the more tactically aware player and the player that can generate more pressure on return since he isn’t as likely to find as many easy holds of serve.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Mackenzie McDonald H2H – Stat of the Match

Griekspoor leads the head-to-head 2-0, though one of those matches was a four-set win a few weeks ago at the French Open, where Griekspoor would be far more comfortable than McDonald (his advantage on grass isn’t likely to be anywhere near as large) and the other matchup? On a hard court indoors in Paris.

That one needed three sets and was decided in a tiebreak. It’s about as close of a contest as you can have.

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