Tallon Griekspoor vs Liam Broady Mubadala Citi DC Open Preview and Expert Tip: Can the Dutchman Power His Way to Victory?

Tallon Griekspoor vs Liam Broady (Mubadala Citi DC Open): Wednesday, August 2nd

Not sure what on earth that was from Dusan Lajovic, but it wasn’t pretty. Nothing to do but move onwards and trust the long term results during stretches like this.

For Wednesday’s ATP preview, it’s back to the American capital, as we’ll look at Tallon Griekspoor vs Liam Broady at the Mubadala Citi DC Open.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Liam Broady Expert Tip

Two different brands of tennis on display here, as we have the more attacking, power-based game of Griekspoor taking on a more methodical, consistent lefty in Britain’s Broady.

Considering how well Griekspoor’s game plays in quicker conditions and he certainly should have the match on his racquet, I’m keen to back him in this one.

A 2.5-game handicap can be won by a margin as little as one break of serve, depending on the service order of each set. To me, that number should be higher, as I have Griekspoor as multiple breaks of serve better than his counterpart.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Griekspoor -2.5 Games at 2.04 with Pinnacle, using 5/10 stakes.

Tallon Griekspoor Recent Form

It’s been a breakout season for the 27-year-old, who has a pair of titles to his name. Interestingly enough, both of them have come on quicker courts. The first was in Pune, India on fast hard courts, with the second coming back during the grass swing in ‘s-Hertogenbosch on home soil. They’re the first of his career, as the talented Griekspoor has needed time to really get his aggressive game under control.

We haven’t seen Griekspoor on tour since his early exit at Wimbledon, but he has played a few matches in the German Bundesliga since then and should be rested up and ready to go for the North American hard-court swing.

With his ability to find cheap points behind his serve and his explosive ball striking ability, he should be dictating and determining his own fate in this one.

Liam Broady Recent Form

Strong Challenger Tour runs in the early part of the year, along with being British during the grass swing have seen Broady play his fair share of tour-level tennis of late.

Unfortunately, the results haven’t been the best. His record of 5-5 seems decent, but his wins have come primarily against guys found most often in Challenger draws like Shintaro Mochizuki and Jan Choinski, or against players with question marks about their physical shape like Corentin Moutet (still not able to hit his normal backhand) or Constant Lestienne (has retired several times this season and is mired in an awful run of form).

He plays a fairly consistent brand of tennis and people may be high on him after seeing him reach the third round at Wimbledon, beating Casper Ruud and pushing Denis Shapovalov as well.

There just isn’t enough attack in his style to win on a consistent basis at the top level of the game, where there are too many players capable of winning points on their own and where he’s a little too dependent on opponents making mistakes.

That should be the case on Wednesday as well. Broady should be overmatched in the service department and has the weaker of the two forehands on offer.

His performance against the out-of-form Moutet last round also left a lot to be desired.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Liam Broady H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have only played once, way back in 2019 on the grass. Broady did manage the win in that one, but I’m not sure how relevant that match is four years later, particularly considering how much we’ve seen Griekspoor improve.

There is certainly a chance that Broady can make Griekspoor hit a lot of balls and that he gets enough errors to frustrate him, but I don’t think that’s the more likely outcome here.

In terms of the stat of the match here for me, I want to take a look at the elo ratings for these two. While Griekspoor’s raw hard-court elo is only about 80 points higher, the hElo (which is a blend of overall and surface-specific elo ratings) that Tennis Abstract believes is a better metric to use when evaluating a head-to-head match has Griekspoor about 150 points clear.

That would imply Griekspoor should be somewhere in the 70% range to win. That would mean his odds should be in the 1.43 range. That’s a far cry from the 1.64 on offer.

I’m not saying that the elo rating is the be-all-end-all in determining odds as other factors can come into play, but I’m pretty sure the price should be closer to the 1.43 than the 1.64 we’re seeing in the market at the moment.

Odds as at 7:00 am UK Time on August 2nd, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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