Underdog the Value Bet: Alejandro Tabilo vs Zhizhen Zhang Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, May 15th

The quarterfinals have arrived at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, and while fans around the world may not like the pace of these second weeks of Masters events, I’m happy to say we have enough value to bet both ATP matches on offer on Thursday! Jon Reid’s Tabilo vs Zhang prediction at 2.59 odds is available below!

That’s not something we typically see in the second weeks of big events when the market tends to be more efficient, but let’s delve into Alejandro Tabilo vs Zhizhen Zhang.

Zhang’s win probability sits at 38.6%, with Tabilo expected to win at 1.56 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.

Tabilo vs Zhang Prediction: Zhang the Value Bet 

• Prediction: Zhang to win
• Best Odds: 2.59
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on May 15th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I can almost guarantee you that this is a statistically driven price point in the market because qualitatively, there just isn’t a gulf between these two that would make it a 60-40 tennis match.

If you wanted to tell me that the Chilean is a slight favorite because he’s had the better season on the whole and may be a little less volatile? I’d give you that. To make him a decisive favorite like this? That’s where I begin to disagree.

Ultimately, we have two aggressive players with big groundstrokes and a high ceiling in terms of talent and ability, but they both have the propensity to spray errors within matches.

I don’t see a whole lot separating them, and since this is an individual sport and one of the matchups, I tend to lean more toward these two being more tightly matched. I’m not going to be this large (unless money continues to come in on Tabilo), but I will take a position backing Zhang at these odds. My Tabilo vs Zhang prediction is for Zhang to win.

To see our preview on Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz, head on over to the expert insights section.

Alejandro Tabilo Recent Form

It’s been a career season for the 26-year-old Toronto-born (had to include that as a Torontonian!) Chilean. He’s established a new career high ranking, won an ATP title, won one of the relatively new 175-point Challengers, and now has all but locked up a seed at Roland Garros.

That’s all impressive, but the market is aware of the success and that’s all baked into the price – I’d argue to an extent that it creates value the other way.

The lefty has always had this potential. His serve can be vicious, his forehand can be flattened out to hit winners or hit with topspin to keep him in longer rallies and he moves around the court pretty well. That versatility on the forehand also means he’s good across surfaces, as we’ve seen this year with that Challenger title coming on clay and the ATP title coming on quicker hard courts.

It’s worth noting that other than a potentially dazed Novak Djokovic and Karen Khachanov (in two tight tiebreaks), he doesn’t have many signature wins this clay season. The aforementioned volatility also means we’ve seen losses to players in the same kind of tier as his opponent on Wednesday, like Flavio Cobolli and Marton Fucsovics.

If there’s any fatigue argument to be made, it would have to come for him as well. He hasn’t spent a lot of time on the court, but Zhang has certainly been the more efficient of the two in dispatching his first few opponents.

Zhizhen Zhang Recent Form

After failing to defend his quarterfinal points from Madrid from 2023 at the tour’s last stop, this has been a much-needed run from the 27-year-old. It’s been impressive too. After being dispatched fairly easily by Luca van Assche and Miomir Kecmanovic from his last two clay tournaments, he’s turned up in the Italian capital locked in.

He’s yet to lose a set, beat a decent (though out of form) clay courter in the opening round in Daniel Galan, crushed an Adrian Mannarino who hates clay as one would expect, beat budding star Ben Shelton as an underdog (though that price was wrong) and then took down Thiago Monteiro – another tricky lefty whose serve had been firing in Rome.

Zhang’s game profiles as one that typically sees a few really strong weeks a season with plenty of early exits mixed in.

That’s life when you play a boom-or-bust style that doesn’t have a Plan B. That also means this bet could go very wrong. With a simple, standard staking though, that doesn’t bother me.

It also means that 2.5 games (a number that isn’t all that key in clay court tennis) is also a poor bet by my estimation. It can certainly hit in a loss, but with Zhang’s volatility, when he loses, the vast majority of the time, it’s not likely to be pretty.

I’d stay away from the handicap and go right for him to win.

Tabilo vs Zhang H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone meeting between these two took place back at Wimbledon in 2021. Zhang won that one by a razor-thin 7-6, 7-6 margin. Even though I’m backing him here, I wouldn’t read too much into that and I don’t think that should affect your percentages in any way.

It was three years ago and on a different surface that plays much, much quicker. Though I think Zhang may benefit from the slower surface on return and in baseline exchanges, it still serves as a poor barometer.

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