Alejandro Tabilo vs Chris O’Connell Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 8th

With a new week, comes a new event, and this week sees the ATP Tour move to scenic Monte Carlo. Let’s look at our Tabilo vs O’Connell prediction for this first-round clash. O’Connell’s win probability comes in at 44.1% while Tabilo is favored to win at 1.68 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 23.

Tabilo vs O’Connell Prediction: Tabilo to Capitalise on Inconsistent Level of O’Connell

• Predictions: Tabilo to win & Tabilo -2 Games
• Best Odds: 1.69 & 1.96
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 5/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on April 8th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

In what has to be viewed as a strong start to the 2024 campaign, I’m going to back the Chilean to come away victorious in this one. For starters, he’s got the bigger game and is more likely to dictate play. Second, O’Connell may construct points well and have time to utilize his smarts on the dirt, but he has vulnerabilities. His first-serve percentage has been too low in too many matches this year. His path to the main draw through qualifying was seriously disappointing.

Tabilo has a few losses on clay and was out of Indian Wells and Miami pretty early, but we’ll address that in a minute.

I have Tabilo’s fair odds closer to 1.55 than the 1.69 on offer. Now, I probably don’t have that large of an edge on the market, but I’m pretty confident my number is closer to being correct than the 1.68 on offer. Our Tabilo vs O’Connell prediction is for Tabilo to win and cover the -2 game handicap.

More previews from the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters are up over on the Expert Insights page.

Alejandro Tabilo Recent Form

It’s been a mixed bag for Tabilo this season, but other than the big names, who runs deep every week?

He began his season with an admittedly surprising title run in Auckland, before falling in the opening round in Melbourne. This was in a five-setter against big-serving American Aleksandar Kovacevic.

From there he played Davis Cup in front of a roaring home Chilean crowd and then took on the Golden Swing, losing to some strong clay courters. This was before getting to within a set of doubling his title total for the season against Sebastian Baez on home soil in Santiago.

He didn’t have the best Sunshine Double in the United States. But, I chalk that up to being tasked with Taylor Fritz and Grigor Dimitrov in the second rounds in Indian Wells and Miami. He almost pulled out a huge upset – was just points away in the second set – against Dimitrov as well.

Tabilo can play across surfaces, he has a nice serve, and a strong enough forehand. But, he also plays with plenty of spin giving him enough margin for error to find success on clay courts as well. The lefty game may come in handy playing the one-handed backhand of his Aussie opponent, so that may be something to watch for as well.

Chris O’Connell Recent Form

Back in 2019, O’Connell surprised the tennis world when he rose up the rankings…and did so using clay court wins.

Now, that’s unusual for someone from Australia, where there is a dearth of clay courts. But, the ITF wins were plentiful and he even reached the final of a Challenger in Romania and won another in Italy.

That was the extent of his success on clay. He won in Split, Croatia in 2022, but has been a pretty mediocre clay courter at both the main tour and Challenger tour levels since.

His intelligent play and point construction are suited well to the clay, and his backhand becomes less vulnerable. But, he still doesn’t seem as comfortable on the surface and when he doesn’t land his first serve, he can’t protect the second and it’s a liability. That’s a big problem for someone who hasn’t landed his first serve at a high rate all that much this year.

Then there’s his path to the main draw that went through an out-of-form Maximilian Marterer, and his countryman Aleksandar Vukic. The former has been an unforced error machine this season. The latter is a serve-oriented, flat-hitting hardcourter who has a total of two main draw wins on clay courts at the ATP level in the last four years. They both came last week). He needed three sets in each of those wins, spending over four and a half hours on court on Saturday and Sunday and he blew leads in both of them as well.

The level has been too hot and cold within matches, he hasn’t shown us much on clay courts. He’s struggled against guys he shouldn’t and he’s playing a competent player. Doesn’t look great for O’Connell.

Alejandro Tabilo vs Chris O’Connell H2H – Stat of the Match

These two played last year on the slower hard courts in Indian Wells. Tabilo won that encounter by a three-game margin in a tight three sets.

Shifting from slow hard courts to clay courts should benefit him a bit more than O’Connell. Throw in the fact that he’s likely a bit fresher entering the match and I like his chances even more.

In terms of what to watch for, see how O’Connell starts the match. He’s had excellent first sets in each of his last three matches, dating back to the loss against Jannik Sinner in Miami. If Tabilo can keep him in check and snag the opening set, O’Connell could be in real trouble.

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