Alejandro Tabilo vs Federico Coria Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/27/25

The next preview on Thursday is also from the Movistar Chile Open on the ATP Tour. It’s the night match featuring Alejandro Tabilo vs Federico Coria.

Coria’s win probability is 43.5%, while Tabilo is favoured to win at 1.62 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s Tabilo vs Coria prediction is for Coria to win.

Alejandro Tabilo vs Federico Coria Prediction: Underdog in Similar Territory as His First Round Encounter

• Prediction: Coria to win
• Best Odds: 2.30
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on February 27th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

We saw a very similar script play out the last time Coria took the court. Taking on the home crowd, he managed to come through easily. Against a player with power, he managed to play a very strong match. The last man was a Challenger Tour player though one might say. I’d then make the case that Tabilo has played at the level of a Challenger player for a while now.

It’s hard to ignore the fact that all the usual narratives of playing at home with the crowd or having the power edge are all ones that were present when Coria eviscerated Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera across two days in straight sets.

With the matchup also favouring Coria as the more solid player that can elicit those errors from the spray-happy lefty and his penchant to play up at 250s this time of the year at a bit of altitude, I’m happy to back him as an underdog.

Alejandro Tabilo Recent Form

The form of the world No. 28 is downright pitiful. 0-5 so far in 2025, with a pair of those as a strong favourite. He has won just four matches in his last 12 tournaments and the last time he managed to win consecutive matches came all the way back before the U.S. Open in Montreal.

He’s simply had a terrible time eradicating the unforced errors from his game and playing someone with the incredible ability to prolong points and make his opponent hit more balls per rally isn’t exactly the best person to get back on track against.

Perhaps Tabilo puts up his best performance in months. Based on what we’ve seen and the matchup on offer, it’s hard to trust him at all at the given prices.

Federico Coria Recent Form

As someone who is as averse as they come to playing on hard courts, or anything quicker than clay, Coria collected his Australian Open first round prize money and returned to South America immediately to resume playing on his desired red clay.

He had a few wins in both Punta del Este and Piracicaba down on the lower Challenger circuit before being defeated and his tour level exploits to date have produced a few uninspiring results as well.

Coria did, however, send another Chilean who struggles with control and consistency packing in the opening round and this handicap is more about the matchup than anything.

We know that at a few hundred metres of altitude, his game can also look a bit more imposing, with his serve not being so vulnerable as well. Before it was taken off the calendar this season, the tournament in Cordoba was one of his better ones year-in, year-out on the main tour.

I’m not too concerned about the elevation negatively impacting him.

Alejandro Tabilo vs Federico Coria H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have met three times in the past, with each match being contested on the red dirt and going three sets. The left-handed Tabilo has come away with the win in two of the three matches.

I’m happy to back the underdog if we get another tight contest. Throw in the really poor form of Tabilo at the moment and it’s an even more enticing prospect.

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