Alejandro Tabilo vs Jenson Brooksby Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/2/25

Our second preview from Wednesday’s action comes from the ATP’s U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships as we preview Alejandro Tabilo vs Jenson Brooksby.

Brooksby’s win probability is just under 50%, while Tabilo is favoured to win at 1.83 odds. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Tabilo vs Brooksby prediction is for Brooksby to win.

Alejandro Tabilo vs Jenson Brooksby Prediction: Brooksby’s Tricky Style to Confound Spray Happy Lefty

• Prediction: Brooksby to win
• Best Odds: 2.07
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on April 2nd, 2025. Odds may now differ.

A day where four previews play and as usual, we have putrid luck with two losing from a set up and one player having a set and break lead and match points before choking the match and no comebacks going our way.

It’s a small sample and you’d expect that to even out, but my word, what a horrid quarter of variance on these written previews.

Let’s see if we can get a player over the line here as we back an American that had been away from the game for quite some time and appears to have gotten himself back up to speed in almost no time at all in Brooksby.

I like his style and the kind of diversity it brings to the men’s game. Big hitters with no point construction or tennis IQ are a dime a dozen these days and then there are some who are making their name on just not missing many balls and wearing opponents down, but the odd combination of flat hitting, slicing, variety and odd technique provides a stark contrast to almost everyone else on tour.

He’s got a tough opponent in Tabilo, whose game works across surfaces and has probably been a bit better than his record would suggest, but on these “clay” courts (sorry, but these Houston courts are basically hard courts with a slightly higher bounce), Brooksby should be able to really target the Chilean’s error prone ways with the way he can force guys to hit low margin shots on the run or force opponents to be patient against his junk balls. Tabilo is not only error prone, but he’s a player that isn’t exactly known for his patience or recognition of when he needs to take something off his ball to keep the rally alive.

Put simply, I see this match as the wrong man being favoured.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Alejandro Tabilo Recent Form

Look, considering the fact that I’m backing Brooksby in this match, I could easily take the easy and lazy route here of just pointing out Tabilo’s win-loss record being a poor 2-8. That would be a tad disingenuous though, because I also think that he’s played some pretty solid tennis in a lot of those losses and just come up short.

He lost to Casper Ruud by just a single break of serve (though he didn’t ever really look to be a threat in that match, to be fair), he took a set from Taylor Fritz, he was the better player and lost a close one against Federico Coria on clay and he lost a third set tiebreak on the dirt to Laslo Djere who was on fire at the time.

It’s certainly been a worse start to 2025 than 2024 and it almost all comes down to one thing – his inability to play sustainable, aggressive, error free tennis.

He still has a nice serve, he still hits through his groundstrokes, he’s still athletic and he’s still willing to give his opposition a different look by coming to the net. Problem is, his volleys have been dreadful and he misses far too many balls in neutral baseline exchanges. Thus, losing a lot of close matches instead of winning them.

If he were an underdog against a poor returner, I’d say he’s a great player to back because once those margins turn in his favour, he’ll start being a profitable player to bet on. Problem is, he isn’t the underdog and, even worse, he’s playing an incredibly consistent player whose biggest strength is eliciting errors from his opposition. Think this is just a bad matchup for Tabilo at the moment.

Jenson Brooksby Recent Form

I alluded to the fact earlier that I’m surprised at how quickly Brooksby has shaken the rust off. He’s 6-6 on the year now, with four of his first five matches being losses, and that’s totally understandable.

Since that point though, Brooksby made the third round at the prestigious Indian Wells Masters, beating Felix Auger Aliassime and even pushing the eventual champion Jack Draper. Now he qualified in Houston and is into the second round here as well.

From being unranked upon his return to rejoining the top-400 if he wins this match, Brooksby is quickly rebuilding his ranking.

I mentioned in the section above why I think he matches up with Tabilo pretty well. The question is can he execute and avoid neutralising his own advantage by hitting unforced errors.

Alejandro Tabilo vs Jenson Brooksby H2H – Stat of the Match

Career series here stands at 1-1 with both matches coming on an outdoor hard court and taking place in 2016 and 2018 on the ITF Tour. In other words, meaningless to this match. I think the situation and matchup are far more critical in evaluating this match than the two prior meetings.

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