Alejandro Tabilo vs Nuno Borges Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/28/24

Our second preview on Monday from the final ATP 1000 event of the year features Alejandro Tabilo vs Nuno Borges from the Rolex Paris Masters.

Borges’ win probability is 43.5%, while Tabilo is favored to win at 1.68 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 23.

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Jon Reid’s Tabilo vs Borges prediction is for Tabilo to cover the handicap.

Alejandro Tabilo vs Nuno Borges Prediction: Back Tabilo Off a Tough Run of Matches

• Prediction: Tabilo -2 Games
• Best Odds: 1.97
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 3:00 am UK Time on October 28th, 2024. 

Similar to the first preview, I’m going to back an undervalued Chilean here that I think has not only had a good season but has had a rough go in terms of players he’s come up against in recent times that have distorted his form to an extent.

Tabilo has the bigger game and has shot up the rankings this year to a greater extent than Borges.

Further, since the summer swing began on hard courts, Borges has done a great job of beating up on players who have struggled, are off their best surface or struggling for form, but when he’s been tasked with some of the better players in the game, he’s been crushed more often than not.

I’m not a believer in him making the jump to the upper echelons of the game and think his offensive limitations are going to keep his ceiling fairly low. Tabilo hasn’t been great of late, but he should be a larger favorite in this one.

Alejandro Tabilo Recent Form

Those who like to simply look at win-loss records may not like this bet, but when we look at Tabilo’s 3-4 record since Tokyo, we can see that he’s lost to an up-and-coming Gabriel Diallo and a trio of top players in Holger Rune, Andrey Rublev, and Tommy Paul.

Now, there may be a case that his mentality may have been affected by some of the close losses, but he even had five match points against Paul and then was an even volley from a commanding lead in the opening set tiebreak against Rublev.

If he can avoid mentally crumbling off a mistake, he should be fine here. Not to mention, it’s much easier to rebound against a softer server and hitter like Borges than the names I mentioned above.

Nuno Borges Recent Form

Borges has accumulated wins since the hard court summer swing began, but going over his resume and the quality of his opposition is a totally different story. Players in dreadful form (Adrian Mannarino, J.J. Wolf), break down physically within the match (Jakub Mensik) or on a surface they’re incredibly poor on (Federico Coria).

He’s done a great job making the most of his limited game this season reaching the world’s top-35, but I’m not sold on the overall body of work.

Perhaps he shows up to this one and adds onto Tabilo’s poor end to the season, but without the weapons to rush him and with these courts typically playing slower than in Vienna, Basel or even the outdoor courts on the Asian swing, I wouldn’t bank on Tabilo being poor simply because he’s playing indoors.

Alejandro Tabilo vs Nuno Borges H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two.

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