Iga Swiatek vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/15/24

After a packed day of action from the BNP Paribas Open that included a slew of quarterfinal matches and a bee invasion, we’re onto the women’s semis, as the WTA takes center stage. The first semifinal set features our Swiatek vs Kostyuk prediction, as the world No. 1 looks to continue a scintillating run against the in-form Ukrainian who has the baseline power to trouble her. Kostyuk’s win probability stands at just 14.3% while Swiatek is favored to win at 1.10 odds. The handicap is 6.5 games and the total games line is 18.5.

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Swiatek vs Kostyuk Prediction: Can Kostyuk Serve Keep Her Close?

It’s hard to tip backing Swiatek at -6.5 games or on the under 18.5 games a day after she was priced similarly against a much more favorable opponent in Caroline Wozniacki. She pushed her more than I anticipated before an injury stopped her in her tracks.

We’ve seen a few times in recent weeks that Swiatek can have problems finding her rhythm to start matches before taking over. That is tougher to stomach against an in-form Kostyuk, who has the baseline power to control points and keep the world No. 1 on the back foot.

I’m not saying I think opposing Swiatek in slower conditions with higher bouncing courts that reward her incredibly heavy topspin is a good idea. I just think that backing her at the same numbers in this match is a bad idea, considering it is a tougher matchup.

Iga Swiatek Recent Form

The recent play of Swiatek has been sizzling, no way around that. She’s covered the handicap in the vast majority of the matches that have finished. That said, context is always king.

For starters, some of those handicaps have been much lower against better players. Secondly, she’s had a more favorable matchup in many of the larger handicap matches that I think made sense.

When she’s landing her first serves and not committing really poor, neutral-rally unforced errors from the baseline, she’s nearly unbeatable on courts like those in Indian Wells. The problem is, she’s had some closer first sets than anticipated in her last few rounds. Once she finds her feet in matches though, watch out. Not only can she bully her opponents, but the weight of her shots can also wear down her opposition. This leads to a kind of double whammy for whoever she is playing.

For me, the way her style sets her up in matches and based on what we’ve seen so far at this event, I’d say if you’re going to bet anything, a live second set handicap or under would be the way to go.

Marta Kostyuk Recent Form

Though Kostyuk may be relatively new to many casual observers of the sport, she’s been on the radar of those who follow it more closely for years.

Still just 21 years old, the game has never been in doubt, with unbridled power from the baseline turning heads since she was a teen. Her issue was the ability to play with that power, while also playing a sustainable, consistent match.

We’re seeing that balance so far in 2024, with Kostyuk putting forth consistently strong results. Her best run at a grand slam? Just a few months ago at the Australian, where she reached the quarterfinals. How about her best run at a 1000-level tournament? This fortnight in California.

She’s finally finding more consistency on her serve and has learned to play more defensive tennis when she’s not in a position to attack, adding more margin for error to her game and making her much more competitive.

I don’t think she’ll upset Swiatek on Friday by any means, but I certainly wouldn’t count her out the same way I would have a year or two ago.

Iga Swiatek vs Marta Kostyuk H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone meeting between Swiatek and Kostyuk happened back in 2021 on clay – Swiatek’s preferred surface – in Paris at the French Open.

Swiatek did win that in straight sets, but a five-game loss on slow red clay to Swiatek? That would be considered a good outing by many players on tour.

That was almost three years ago, but both players have improved substantially since then. I wouldn’t adjust my numbers too much based on that one result.

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