World’s No.1 Keeps Rolling: Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H Stats and News for 5/14/24

Madison Keys draws the #1 WTA Ranked Iga Swiatek at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia quarterfinals, and a lopsided affair is expected. The line setters expect Swiatek to advance at the Italian Open, as the American is a big underdog in Rome on Tuesday. Ej’s Swiatek vs Keys prediction with odds of +139 can be found below.

Swiatek is on pace to hoist consecutive trophies on clay after taking the Madrid title, and she can win her third title in Rome with three more wins this week.

Keys is playing in her second quarterfinal match in Rome, and she has yet to advance to the semifinals in 10 tries in the Italian Capital. Keys knows she is outmatched and an overwhelming underdog against Swiatek, and it will take a monumental effort to pull an upset.    

SWIATEK VS KEYS PREDICTION: WORLD’S #1 LOOKING DOMINANT

• Prediction: Iga Swiatek -3.5 Games 1st Set
• Best Odds: +139 (2.39)
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 8:00 am UK Time May 14, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Iga Swiatek is pretty good! Oh stop it, the Polish superstar is proving to everyone that this year’s clay season is hers to win. 

Let’s start with her success in Rome, as the two-time trophy winner at the Italian Open wants to add a third piece of hardware to her collection. With Madrid already in the bank, Iga has won 11 of her 12 matches on the dirt in 2024, and Madison Keys stands in her way today.

Swiatek has only lost four total matches this season, and when you have played 39 of them that win percentage looks insane. Oh, it’s 89.7% of her appearances this season!

I admit I didn’t have Madison Keys playing in this match, as I thought Sorana Cirstea would battle her down to a 2 – 1 set loss. That didn’t happen and Keys quickly dismantled the Romanian off the court, and now she gets a crack at the World’s #1.

I am sorry to seem disrespectful, but it is so hard to fade anything that Iga is doing right now, and I think she will jump on Madison early. The 6 – 2 correct score is +375, and I would love to be that guy who makes that call. 

Iga to win the first set on the -3.5 handicap is listed at +139, so if she makes quick of Keys I will enjoy that payout. This Under 18.5 Games Played has my eye at -111, so I include that in any combos or parlays you make on your own accord.

Swiatek on clay is too much and too good, and we will see who can challenge her enough to stop a winning run in Rome… Again!

IGA SWIATEK RECENT FORM

Iga is 11 – 1 on clay in 2024, and she only dropped two sets from her six wins in Madrid to hoist that hardware. Swiatek has an eight-match win streak on clay and is heavily favored to get past Keys on Tuesday.

With 10 clay titles to her credit in her career, a win in Rome would give her all the momentum headed to Paris. There is this little-known event coming up, you know, the FRENCH OPEN!!

She already has three Major titles earned on Parisian clay from 2020, 2022, and 2023 wins. 

MADISON KEYS RECENT FORM

Madison missed the first two months of the campaign with a shoulder injury which I mentioned in my preview with Cirstea. This is her fifth tournament in the 2024 season, and undoubtedly her biggest test since returning to the tour.

Keys was one of six victims in Iga’s run to the Madrid title, and Swiatek made quick work of the American, 1 & 3. Swiatek is 2 – 0 on clay against Keys, with her other win at this event in 2021.

SWIATEK VS KEYS HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Swiatek and Keys have met twice on clay and four times overall since 2021. Iga dismantled Keys in the two clay affairs and is 3 – 1 against her. 

Keys’ only win in the series came in Cincinnati during the 2022 campaign.

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