Dalibor Svrcina vs Lilian Marmousez Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/3/25

Our other preview for the day actually from down on the ATP Challenger circuit in Barlett, Italy, as I just can’t pass up the opportunity to point out this value. Let’s delve into Dalibor Svrcina vs Lilian Marmousez.

Marmousez’s win probability is only 28%, with Svrcina entering as the overwhelming favourite to win at 1.30 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 20.

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Jon Reid’s prediction is for Svrcina to clear the games handicap.

Dalibor Svrcina vs Lilian Marmousez Prediction

• Prediction: Svrcina -4.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on April 3rd, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Not sure what else to say about this match other than these two are on totally different levels. Svrcina is a tad underpowered, but still a top tier player at this level of the sport, while Marmousez is playing out of his depths and lucky to be here thanks to his draw, with him typically being found on the ITF Tour.

In terms of the handicap being the great equaliser, that may be so and 4.5 games is a pretty steep line, but the talent discrepancy alone would make that number the right one, while Svrcina’s elite return game and ability to serve up lopsided sets means that I think in terms of the overall range of outcomes, lopsided sets and thus, larger margins of victory are a bit more likely in this type of match compared to a more standard men’s tennis match.

Give me the Czech to find a comfortable win here for my second wager on the day.

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Dalibor Svrcina Recent Form

Since the start of February, Svrcina has posted an impressive 14-4 record. One of those losses came via retirement when he was hurt, another came against a tour level opponent on his best surface and the other two were against Vit Kopriva – a player who won a high level Challenger last Sunday and is currently in the second round of a main tour tournament who will make his top-100 debut with a win of his own on Thursday.

In other words, it takes someone much better than Marmousez to beat him most of the time.

When he comes up against players in the same sphere as Marmousez? We almost always see straight sets wins and more often than not one of those sets involves a 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 type score.

Good mover, ultra consistent and elite on return, Svrcina has all the tools to dominate this match on the clay.

Lilian Marmousez Recent Form

The 23-year-old Frenchman has put up a stellar record on paper on clay courts in the last few seasons, but his game simply lacks and most of the wins have come at a very, very low level.

ITF Tour victories and Challenger qualifying draw wins account for 44 of his 48 wins since the start of the 2024 campaign. Three others came at the lowest end of the Challenger Tour (a 50 point event in Troyes, France) and the other? The first round here against a local wild card.

When you consider the dearth of decent wins on his resume, this large handicap becomes a lot more understandable and actually may seem a bit low.

He doesn’t possess the serve or power to hold off an incredible returner like Svrcina and his one handed backhand is nothing to write home about. Power rating wise I make him 5-5.5 games worse than the Czech in this matchup.

Dalibor Svrcina vs Lilian Marmousez H2H – Stat of the Match

Tough to have prior matchups to look at when one player struggles so much to reach the level of the other. Thus, this will be the first match contested between Svrcina and Marmousez.

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