Jan Lennard Struff vs Corentin Moutet Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 11/5/24

A nice start to the final week of regular, bracketed ATP tournaments. Let’s see if we can keep that going into Tuesday’s action. Our first preview comes from the Moselle Open in Metz, France.

We have Jan Lennard Struff vs Corentin Moutet in a match that will see a contrast of styles and likely some entertaining antics from the fiery lefty in front of a home crowd.

Moutet’s win probability is slightly lower than 45%, while Struff is favored to win at 1.70 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Struff vs Moutet prediction is for Struff to win.

Jan Lennard Struff vs Corentin Moutet Prediction: Powerful German Rounding Into Form

• Prediction: Struff to win
• Best Odds: 1.70
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 2:30 am UK Time on November 5th, 2024. 

We’ll talk a bit more about his form in a minute, but the recent exploits of Moutet on indoor hard courts are a pretty decent representation of why I’m looking to oppose him here. Though he’s had some close and competitive sets, the fact is, he’s been a bit too underpowered to keep pace with bigger servers and more powerful hitters in quicker conditions lately.

He’ll find plenty of holds of serve of his own, but he’s also more likely to face pressure in his service games and thus, end up being broken a bit more often.

Another reason I like this bet is I can get Struff at 1.70 odds just to win the match. I have him much closer to 1.60, providing me with plenty of value to attack. Some may not like these kinds of odds, but it’s important to remember, it’s about where the odds should be and in this case, there is clear value on the 1.70.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Jan Lennard Struff Recent Form

Struff recently returned to tour after taking a break once he blew two sets to one lead against Laslo Djere in the year’s final major opening round in New York City.

The results have been a mixed bag. He lost to Alex de Minaur, but led that match 6-2. He crushed an in-form Lorenzo Musetti, though there’s a case to be made that a long season had taken its toll on the Italian. He lost to Arthur Fils, but the youngster is supremely talented and had a strong run in that Paris tournament and had recently won an ATP 500 in Tokyo.

In the first round here, he had to comeback against a struggling Alexander Shevchenko who had started off that match on fire, before fading away and playing the typical error-strewn tennis we’ve become accustomed to.

I think Struff has been re-finding his rhythm in the last few weeks and he’s dealt with some tough customers in his matches. Moutet is by no easy an easy opponent with his passion, antics and variety, but I don’t think he’s nearly as tough as some of the guys Struff has already played and either pushed or beaten.

Corentin Moutet Recent Form

On a positive note, Moutet has three wins this indoor season as he looks to build his ranking back up.

The downside? They’ve all been retirements and he hasn’t even looked that great in those matches prior to his opponents starting to struggle physically.

Throw in the matchup concerns and underpowered game and I’m not sure he should be given a chance exceeding 40%. Perhaps he can run Struff ragged and the fact that the big German is still coming back may help him wear him down. Other than that though – a situation I don’t envisage happening over 40% of the time – I’m not sure what other path to victory there is other than a redlining performance with his first serve for Moutet.

Jan Lennard Struff vs Corentin Moutet H2H – Stat of the Match

Struff and Moutet have split their two prior meetings. Moutet won in straightforward fashion in Adelaide nearly three years ago, while Struff won at a Challenger in France back in 2023.

They were scheduled to meet again at the Olympics in Paris this past summer, but Struff was forced to withdraw prior to the match taking place.

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