Dominic Stricker vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 10/14/24

We’re back to the European time zone for the ATP Tour and paired with a holiday Monday, I’m in a good mood as a result. Let’s see if we can find some winners to make it an even happier start to the week!

We’ll start with Dominic Stricker vs Aleksandar Kovacevic from the BNP Paribas Nordic Open.

Kovacevic’s win probability is just under 50%, while Stricker is a slight favorite to win at 1.80 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

Jon Reid’s prediction for Stricker vs. Kovacevic is that Stricker will win.

Dominic Stricker vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Prediction: Back Explosive Young Gun in Close Matchup

• Prediction: Stricker to win
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 8:30 pm UK Time on October 13th, 2024. 

It’s a legitimate question and the answer seems fairly simple. Injuries have destroyed the 22-year-old’s season. At one point, Stricker was a top-100 player, having turned heads at the U.S. Open by beating Stefanos Tsitsipas. He’s currently outside of the top 300 as he looks to get healthy and make his way back up the ranks.

For me though, we’re discounting him a bit too much over fitness. He’s the more well-rounded player, yet can match his right-handed opponent when it comes to firepower.

He also has that lefty game that in crosscourt exchanges can use that big, heavy forehand to pin Kovacevic in his weaker backhand corner. The one-hander can be pressured and forced into errors.

Then there’s the fact that while most indoor tournaments play rather quickly (the other two this week would fall into that category, with Antwerp typically one of the quickest courts on tour), the courts here tend to play on the medium slow side. While both these guys prefer quicker conditions, Stricker is far more reliable if the courts slow a bit, which means I would give him the surface edge here as well.

Finally, with bet365’s grading policies, we get back our stake should Stricker retire from this one at any point, whereas with other bookmakers, we would lose our stake if the first set is completed before he retires.

Check out the expert insights section for more ATP tennis previews.

Dominic Stricker Recent Form

Been a tough year for the promising Swiss young gun. He was hurt until the grass season and came back on a surface that gives you almost no time to set up your shots. The result? A horrendous start to his 2024 season.

He was able to find a few hard-court wins this past summer, but physical issues popped up again in his last match on 2 October, and he was forced to retire.

That to me is the only reason not to have him down at 1.66. Remove the injury concerns and he has the weapons to match Kovacevic, along with that ability to pick on the one-handed backhand and much more talent with a more well-rounded game than his American counterpart.

Even form-wise, Kovacevic is mired in a slump himself, so it’s not like we’re buying low on a play struggling against someone lighting up the Challenger circuit.

Aleksandar Kovacevic Recent Form

As I just mentioned, Kovacevic hasn’t exactly been racking up the victories either, now on a five-match losing skid, with the last three coming to Alibek Kachmazov (peripheral Challenger Tour player), Taro Daniel (not a quick hard court aficionado) and Terence Atmane (a Challenger player with weapons but very little court awareness).

Though he has a strong serve and forehand combination, his opponent in this one does as well, and it’s hard to see what he does better than Stricker or what exactly sets him apart. It’s the reason he’s had problems establishing himself on the main circuit. He just lacks any sort of dimension.

Dominic Stricker vs Aleksandar Kovacevic H2H – Stat of the Match

Stricker has the lone win in this matchup. It came a few years ago on the quick indoor hard courts of the Biel Challenger. It’s been long enough that I’m not sure it’s relevant, but as the younger player with a bit more to his game and much more potential, I’m willing to take on the market and back him here. I simply can’t have the retirement almost two weeks ago bringing the price in this much at the one indoor event that isn’t playing all that quickly.

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