Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Gael Monfils National Bank Open Preview and Expert Tip: Resurgent Monfils to Push Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Gael Monfils (National Bank Open): Wednesday, August 9th

It appears as though Daniel Evans’ reprieve from the poor form that has ruined his season was a one-week phenomenon. What an awful match against youngster Gabriel Diallo, as he never had the lead and never looked like the player with more tour-level pedigree. All that momentum for the U.S. Open is likely gone now for the Brit.

For Wednesday’s ATP preview, let’s look at the Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Gael Monfils match from the National Bank Open in Toronto.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Gael Monfils Expert Tip

This one should provide the crowd with some absolutely excellent tennis. Now 36 years old, Monfils has been finding his legs in recent weeks. His big serve and Tsitsipas’ occasional struggles on return, along with his incredible athleticism and shotmaking abilities make me believe this match is closer than the market is making it out to be.

Tsitsipas is fortunate enough to have an extra day off coming from a final in Mexico (that also took place on Saturday night), but there is still the chance he takes a while to get out of the gates off a title a few days ago as we saw with Evans.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Over 22.5 Games at 2.04 with Pinnacle, using 2/10 stakes.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Recent Form

It took over seven months and a drop down to the 250 level for the Greek No. 1 to finally claim his maiden title of the 2023 season.

The big server with a strong forehand and movement along the baseline simply found himself being eclipsed by stronger players with more well-rounded games – particularly from the backhand side.

The problem is, he only played two real strong players in that Los Cabos run in Alex de Minaur (who he matches up perfectly against, since the Aussie doesn’t have the weapons to trouble Tsitsipas) and Nicolas Jarry, who forced him to a pair of tiebreaks before running out of gas in the third set.

I’m not sold that Tsitsipas is ready to dominate a player like Monfils, with his ability on serve. Especially since the Frenchman can also return.

Gael Monfils Recent Form

It has been a long road back for the veteran from France, but he’s finally starting to look a bit like the Monfils of old.

Trick shots, shots on the run, relentless defending, big forehands to all parts of the court and a booming first serve when it lands have all been showcased in recent weeks.

So far in Atlanta, Washington and Toronto, Monfils is 3-2, but has played some strong competition. He’s beaten the in-form Chris Eubanks and the always-explosive Alexander Bublik. His only losses have come in three sets to a pair of players that also possess big time firepower for hard courts, and he led one of those matches against Thanasi Kokkinakis in Atlanta.

The current iteration of Monfils has a better chance than many may realise in this matchup.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Gael Monfils H2H – Stat of the Match

I’m not one into believing too much in head-to-head matches from several years ago, but these two have played three times – all on hard courts – with Tsitsipas leading 2-1 and every match featuring a tiebreak, third set, or both.

As for my stat to watch for? How about a hold rate from Monfils of over 90% since the start of Atlanta.

This is significant for a few reasons. First, it means that as the underdog, he should be more than capable of keeping things close. Secondly, it means the likelihood of a tiebreak is greatly increased. Finally, it matches up well with Tsitsipas’ weakness, which is his return game.

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on August 9th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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