Lorenzo Sonego vs Sumit Nagal Prediction, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/3/24

Wednesday’s first preview comes from the Grand Prix Hassan II from Marrakech. Our Sonego vs Nagal prediction features two players who are familiar with each other after their meeting at the ATP event in Dubai earlier this season. Nagal’s win probability comes in at 37% while Sonego is favored to win at 1.52 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.

Can Nagal avenge that loss? Or is Sonego going to add another win to his total in matches between these two?

Sonego vs Nagal Prediction: Nagal to Push Sonego Again

• Prediction: Nagal to win
• Best Odds: 2.70
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on April 3rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

When these two played a few weeks ago on hard courts, I was much more inclined to back the bigger serving Italian who was more well-suited to take advantage of the quicker conditions at play in Dubai.

This time around, however, I think a few things work in Nagal’s favor. These two are both competent on the dirt, but Nagal certainly stands a better chance at generating pressure on return and inducing unforced errors here than he did back in Dubai.

He also hasn’t played nearly as much tennis entering this match as he had in their last encounter, which should prepare him to be much more competitive if this one gets to a deciding set again. Our Sonego vs Nagal prediction is for Nagal to win.

Read on for more expert insights.

Lorenzo Sonego Recent Form

To say Sonego has struggled this season would be an understatement. Despite a strong first serve and forehand combination, Sonego can often look lost on return and has a nasty habit of going from real solid play to sloppy, error-prone tennis.

That inconsistency is why he sports such a poor record so far in 2024. The talent is why he’s been able to play a lot of high-quality opponents pretty close in the first few months of the season as well.

Shifting over to clay season, I think he’s also more comfortable on this surface than on hard courts, but the question becomes, does his game suit the clay as much?

Yes, he has more time to set up his shots and probably prefers to play on the surface, but one also has to wonder if his penchant for spraying unforced errors could be more exploitable on slower courts.

Sumit Nagal Recent Form

Nagal may not employ the most entertaining brand of tennis, but he’s been effective at the type of tennis he plays, grinding many players down and forcing them into making mistakes fairly often to help him rack up wins.

He has played a lot of lower-level competition though, with a lot of success coming down on the Challenger circuit.

On the plus side, he has built up some form and now is back to his favorite surface, where his speed, defensive play, and athleticism can shine as he tracks everything down and forces his opponents to reduce their margins to finish points against him.

After running out of gas in quicker conditions against Sonego earlier this season in the Middle East, I’m sure Nagal will be looking to exact his revenge against an opponent who can play a strong clay-court game, but who is also error-prone for stretches of play.

Lorenzo Sonego vs Sumit Nagal H2H – Stat of the Match

The aforementioned match in Dubai is the only one these two have contested professionally to this point.

Nagal acquitted himself through the first two sets more impressively than I thought he’d be able to on a quicker surface there.

He did lose in three sets, but that likely had more to do with the accumulation of fatigue after playing a lot of tennis leading into Dubai.

Move the match to a slower surface and the 26-year-old should look even better this time around.

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