Lorenzo Sonego vs Nicolas Jarry Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/28/24

After a superb week between the pair of ATP 500 tournaments in Europe, we’ll look to end the season strong with the final few weeks in view.

This week, it’s the Rolex Paris Masters, and there are a slew of matches to get us going in the first few days. Let’s take a deeper look at Lorenzo Sonego vs Nicolas Jarry.

Jarry’s win probability is down around just 42%, while Sonego is favored to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 24.5.

Jon Reid’s Sonego vs. Jarry prediction is that Jarry will win.

Lorenzo Sonego vs Nicolas Jarry Prediction: Sonego Overvalued Off Mediocre Qualifying Campaign

• Prediction: Jarry to win
• Best Odds: 2.40
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 1:15 am UK Time on October 28th, 2024. 

I do think that Jarry continues to be shown a bit of disrespect in the markets, though. On one hand, I get it. He hasn’t been good, and he’s admitted that he has an ear condition that can mess with his balance at times. We’ve seen him look out of position and disjointed on occasion on court.

On the other hand, he continues to play competitive matches and he’s done so in recent weeks against better competition than Sonego. That brings me to my final point: Sonego has been pretty poor himself. Sure, he qualified into the main draw here over the weekend, but we’ll talk in a minute about why that isn’t all that impressive, and I think Jarry is a tough matchup for him.

Other than “beating lesser opposition over the weekend” I can’t see all that much that Sonego does better than Jarry. Yet he’s the favorite.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Lorenzo Sonego Recent Form

We opposed Sonego last week in a bet that worked out beautifully. In that preview (in his match against countryman Lorenzo Musetti), we talked about how poor he’s been since Winston-Salem – a tournament that takes place the week before a major and always should be taken with a grain of salt.

That still holds true this week. 1-6 since the U.S. Open prior to qualifying is not an impressive mark, with his game overly reliant on his first serve. His backhand is poor and the errors, point construction and decision-making are all subpar.

He did qualify for this event, but as I mentioned earlier, beating Botic van de Zandschulp (another player having an awful 2024 season) 7-5 in a third set and then Roberto Carballes Baena off of clay is nothing to write home about.

I’m sure there are a few stats that more quantitatively-driven handicappers are basing their handicaps on that are keeping the market in this range, but I’m not having it and am happy to have a go with him to be defeated.

Nicolas Jarry Recent Form

The form hasn’t been great of late, but I will say, Jarry has started to play his opponents much closer. His last two losses have come at the hands of Miomir Kecmanovic and Casper Ruud. The first was a match that saw him have several break points that would’ve seen him serve for the match and the second was a match against a strong player that he only lost by a single break of serve margin in the end.

If I’m going to back someone who has been battling an inner ear issue, I’m going to do it against someone he matches up well against, during a stretch of the season where he’s played competitively and when I’m getting odds well over even money. This match fits the bill.

Lorenzo Sonego vs Nicolas Jarry H2H – Stat of the Match

Perhaps the fact that Sonego has a 2-1 head-to-head lead is also swaying the market. The only matches played in the last five years, however, took place a year ago with Jarry winning in straight sets in Shanghai and Sonego having to come from a set down to win a close three-setter.

Even the head-to-head on hard courts in recent years points to these two playing a close one more often than not.

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