Lorenzo Sonego vs Marc Andrea Huesler Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/14/24

Our second preview comes from the BNP Paribas Nordic Open as well. It’s the best field among the three ATP 250s this week. Let’s dig into Lorenzo Sonego vs Marc Andrea Huesler.

Huesler’s win probability is about the same as Sonego’s with both being between 1.90 and 1.95 odds. The handicap is 0.0 games and the total games line is 23.5.

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Jon Reid’s Sonego vs Huesler prediction is for Huesler to win.

Lorenzo Sonego vs Marc Andrea Huesler Prediction: In Form Lefty Dangerous With Improved Patience on Court

• Prediction: Huesler to win
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 1:15 am UK Time on October 14th, 2024. 

I’m not exactly sure how Sonego is clinging onto a spot in the world’s top 50, but he’s been pretty poor this season. He has a title in Winston-Salem for 250 points and that’s about the only notable result on his resume. With that tournament the week before the year’s final major and the second toughest opponent he would’ve come up against withdrawing before the match, I don’t give him too much credit for that.

He has a nice serve and a nice forehand to get him cheap points, but I’m not sold on anything else. His point construction is abysmal, he’s far too error prone and his backhand is subpar.

The last point there could be especially troublesome, as he’s playing a lefty with big power and a huge forehand that can exploit his weakness in the higher-margin crosscourt exchanges.

On the flip side, the progression Huesler has made with his own backhand this year has impressed me. He was better on clay than I remembered thanks to that more rounded-out game and he’s been solid on hard courts this summer as well.

Lorenzo Sonego Recent Form

Since winning that title the week before a grand slam in North Carolina, Sonego has lost four straight matches. Worth noting, two of those came against lefties in Adrian Mannarino and Denis Shapovalov. The loss at the U.S. Open to Tommy Paul was a drubbing as well, despite him winning a set and then the fourth was to Taro Daniel, who isn’t that great in quicker conditions.

With a game that lacks patience or tactical awareness and has a clear weakness, I’d have him as the clear underdog despite him being present on the main circuit more often.

Marc Andrea Huesler Recent Form

I’ve been impressed with the powerful lefty since his run to the quarters as a qualifier at the Challenger tournament in Madrid back in April. That’s when I took notice of his vastly improved rally tolerance and recognition of when to go for his shots and when to play it safe in neutral rallies.

Prior to this season, Huesler had a lovely game and plenty of talent, but it wasn’t utilized properly and the result was patchy play and extended losing streaks. He hit with very low net clearance, thus once the rallies extended, he was more likely to see the point end with one of his shots ending up in the net.

Now, he’s a bit more patient – particularly from the backhand – yet hasn’t abandoned the aggressive side of his game. He’s just more selective with when to pull the trigger and step into shots when his opponents leave them short.

He followed that Challenger up with a quarterfinal run as a qualifier at the ATP 250 in Munich and has since won a hard court Challenger while making the semifinals of another two tournaments on the lower circuit – one on hard court and one on clay. His qualifying run here has also seen him blitz through two opponents, losing just four games in four sets.

Now Sonego is a step up, but I would much prefer Huesler here in a market implying a 50-50 contest.

Lorenzo Sonego vs Marc Andrea Huesler H2H – Stat of the Match

Sonego has the lone win between the two, which came last year outdoors in Dubai. I think Huesler has made a decent amount of progress since then. Let’s see if he can avenge that loss.

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