Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/25/25

The first major of the year wraps up Sunday as we have Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev squaring off for the men’s title at the Australian Open.

Zverev’s win probability is only 29%, while Sinner is favoured to win at 1.36 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 40.

Jon Reid’s Sinner vs Zverev prediction is for Sinner to emerge with his second consecutive title at the Happy Slam.

Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev Prediction: Tough to Oppose Sinner in Final

It’s really tough to oppose the world No. 1 in the final on Sunday at Melbourne Park. Not simply because he’s the best player in the world and the defending champion, but also because Zverev has continually shown us that deep into majors, he continues to play very passive, almost scared, tennis.

It’s been an issue in the past as he gets tight nearing his first ever major trophy and we saw it again in the semifinals against Novak Djokovic, with Zverev leaning on his serve and Djokovic who looked okay to many, but was hampered in how aggressive it appeared he could be physically.

I will say that Sinner also had some cramping issues, though Ben Shelton was in worse shape than he was and cramping issues should be more manageable moving forward than an injury.

I also believe that the Zverev serve and his ability to rack up cheap holds with his booming first serve and the rate with which he lands it and his strong backhand mean that the big German is actually deserving of being afforded more respect in the market than Sinner’s last few opponents. With the handicap in the 4-4.5 game range, that is exactly what we’re seeing, meaning the value is sparse in this match.

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Jannik Sinner Recent Form

Once we reach a grand slam final, it goes without saying both men are in good form and playing some strong tennis.

Sinner has dropped just two sets to this point in his bid to repeat as champion down under and he rebounded extremely well from both, dominating the remainder of the matches against Holger Rune and Tristan Schoolkate.

Even against Shelton, he had to break to stay in the opening set, won it in a tiebreak and after a close call, absolutely rolled the rest of the way.

Anytime someone beats Sinner it takes a monumental effort and it won’t be any different come Sunday.

Alexander Zverev Recent Form

Zverev has also begun his season undefeated, winning his six matches in Melbourne to reach this point, and adding a pair of victories at the United Cup as well.

He too has dropped just two sets en route to the final, but he was able to be on court for under 90 minutes in the semis thanks to the abrupt retirement from Djokovic after the first set.

That could come into play, but with each player having the Saturday off (when the women take centre stage to play their final), I’m not sure if that’s going to be too much of an advantage (especially since Sinner’s final two sets were relatively brief as well).

I think if Zverev can find a way past the nerves, his performance on serve against Djokovic for the one set that took place, with a bit more aggression and willingness to try and take it to Sinner could very well make him live to pull off the upset.

Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev H2H – Stat of the Match

Zverev has actually had Sinner’s number in the six times they’ve played. Now, in the last two years – the timeframe in which Sinner has really taken over the men’s tour – it’s 1-1, but that’s still a record that I’m sure many on the men’s tour would take against the Italian.

You have to think the big serve neutralises the strong Sinner return game, while the elite backhand is actually able to wrestle control away from the best player in the world in some baseline exchanges.

He’ll have to channel his 2023 U.S. Open performance on Sunday if he wants to pull off the upset and win his first grand slam tournament.

Best of luck if you do have a wager in Sunday’s final!

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