Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/23/25

Though the odds may think this is as one-sided as a semifinal as you’ll see at the Australian Open, I think the Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton match may be a tad closer than expected.

Shelton’s win probability is under 8%, while Sinner is the overwhelming favourite to win at 1.06 odds. The handicap is 6.5 games and the total games line is 33.

Jon Reid’s Sinner vs Shelton prediction is for Shelton to be more competitive than the market believes.

Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton Prediction: Shelton Getting Too Many Games on the Handicap

• Prediction: Shelton +6.5 Games
• Best Odds: 2.09
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on January 23rd, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Well, I’m not the biggest fan of betting the second week of majors, nor do I typically bet on the games handicap on underdogs in men’s tennis, but here we are, with me doing both.

I don’t know if Shelton is ready to take down the most in form player in the world and by far the best at the sport in the world, but I do think 6.5 games is a lot for a player who likes quicker courts, has an imposing serve and forehand combination and is pretty tough to blow out in any given set.

We’ll go over that a bit more in the head-to-head section as well, but even the best player on the planet has played closer sets with Shelton more often than not, especially in quick conditions.

The only concern here is that Sinner does tend to serve first when he wins the coin toss and a 6-3 first set would be detrimental.

Final point here is, think about the games of both Alex de Minaur and Shelton. Then consider that the market has priced up Sinner to cover against Shelton more often than they did against the much less explosive de Minaur. That is absurd considering how each of them matches up with the world No. 1.

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Jannik Sinner Recent Form

What more is left to say about Sinner’s form? He hammers the ball like no one else from the baseline, has improved his serve, returns incredibly well and there is no one questioning that he is the best player in men’s tennis at the moment

His record now stands at 28-2 at grand slams since the start of the 2024 season and it’s ridiculous how tough he is to beat in a best of five set format.

We’ll see how he fares against the booming serve of Shelton in the semifinals. I think it’s pretty clear he’s going to be in the final, but let’s see if he can pick up another lopsided win at a major against the American in quick conditions or if Shelton keeps him close and provides a more entertaining contest for the spectators.

Ben Shelton Recent Form

Though he’s said that he is working on his movement, return and backhand, this year’s iteration of Shelton looks a lot like previous years.

Yes, he’s made another major semifinal. His talent is that good. The problem has never been his results or his ability, so much as his lack of progression in areas that have been clear weaknesses for him since he joined the main tour.

He still doesn’t dominate opposition nearly as much as those at the top of the game with similar eye-catching abilities (think Sinner and Alcaraz) and he may continue to rack up wins and be an incredibly entertaining player to watch, but if he wants to actually win the biggest trophies the sport has to offer with any kind of regularity, those weaknesses have to be addressed.

His break rate in this tournament has once again been mediocre at best, and it’s not likely going to get better here against Sinner.

The key for the lefty is the same as it has been for years. Serve well, find holds, make nice shots and pump yourself up to make yourself believe. At this point, that’s about all he can do with visible limitations to his game.

Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton H2H – Stat of the Match

Sinner leads the series 4-1 against his fellow young gun, but in quicker conditions, we’re at 3-1 and only one of those matches ended up with Sinner rolling and winning by margin (the fourth round at Wimbledon last year), thanks to a really poor start from Shelton.

This matchup may not be one where Shelton has looked like he was going to win all that often, but he’s also not someone that has been blown out regularly.

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