Jannik Sinner vs Holger Rune Prediction, Odds, Form, H2H, 4/12/24

Another four matches on tap from one of the better ATP tennis tournaments of the early clay season. Let’s delve into our Sinner vs Rune prediction. Rune’s win probability is only 15.7% while Sinner is favoured to win at 1.15 odds. The handicap is five games and the total games line is 20.

Sinner vs Rune Prediction: Sinner to Avenge Semifinal Loss from 2023

Much like the Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti from Thursday at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, this match provides Sinner with an opportunity to avenge a loss from this very event last year.

He should be able to do just that. He’s on absolute fire, has improved his game considerably and Rune’s physical condition has to be a question mark entering the match.

The question becomes, is there any value in backing the Italian? He has been betting heavily since the odds for the match were released, and even with the likelihood of a lopsided set win, it’s tough to lay five games at a fairly expensive price.

Read on for more expert insights.

Jannik Sinner Recent Form

Sinner is 24-1 this season. His loss came from a setup to Carlos Alcaraz. That’s all you need to know about your form.

He played a thriller with Rune here last year in the semis and came up just short. Since then, he’s tweaked his serve and made it as reliable as almost anyone’s. He’s become far less vulnerable to physical issues within matches, and he’s playing a guy who should be dead tired.

I’m not sure what else needs to be said. He’s a huge favorite for a reason.

Holger Rune Recent Form

Rune is 15-7 this year, but with a 4-1 record coming in the very first week of the season, it’s been a grind for the 20-year-old. Since making the final in Brisbane, he’s just 11-6, which is a record that isn’t exactly synonymous with a top-10 player. If he loses to Sinner on Friday, he’ll drop out of the top 10 for the first time in over a year, which is indicative in and of itself of his level not being where it should be.

He has all the tools to be one of the best on tour, from his excellent movement and court coverage to his elite backhand to his constantly improving aggression and offensive game.

The errors aren’t all that prevalent on the whole, but they come in spurts and it costs him sets and sometimes matches.

Take his first match of Thursday against Sumit Nagal. Before the rain postponed play on Wednesday, he was playing extremely well, keeping up with the great defending of his Indian counterpart in the longer rallies and moving the ball around the court, waiting for his chance to pounce.

Yet when the match restarted, he lost a slew of games on the trot, spraying errors left, right, and center.

Coming off about four total hours on the court on Thursday, I’m not sure how he is going to keep pace with the most in-form player in the world.

Jannik Sinner vs Holger Rune H2H – Stat of the Match

Rune actually leads Sinner 2-1, with him winning each of the first two matches they played. A few caveats though. As I mentioned above, Sinner’s game has improved significantly since even that last match a year ago.

Secondly, Rune didn’t start that match coming off a grueling three-hour battle the day prior and having to finish a match from the prior round pushed back a day due to rain.

Sinner has been given the perfect opportunity to avenge that semifinal loss.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.