Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, September 4th

The second quarterfinal of the day from the men’s draw at the U.S. Open comes in the night session as we get a rematch from the Australian Open final and the Wimbledon quarterfinal in Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev.

Medvedev’s win probability is right around the 30% mark, while Sinner is favoured to win at 1.38 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 38.5.

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Our Sinner vs Medvedev prediction is for Medvedev to be more competitive in the match than the market thinks.

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction: Teaser

• Prediction: Medvedev to win
• Best Odds: 3.36
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 1/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on September 4th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

It’s hard not to believe Medvedev presents some value at odds over 3.00. He’s had the ability to push Sinner in the past, even in the string of Sinner wins prior to Wimbledon.

The serve is one of the better ones in the game and his defensive abilities from the baseline combined with his consistency make players work so hard for every point they win.

I don’t think there’s a need to talk up Sinner. He has what is probably the most powerful baseline game in tennis, has a surprisingly strong return game and has very few holes in his game. He’s the world No. 1 for a reason.

Without as much tennis in his legs as we saw prior to the Australian Open final, Medvedev may have enough to replicate the upset he managed to pull off on Centre Court at the All England Club.

The one concern might be the courts here not being quite as fast and the match being played at night. I do think though that may benefit Sinner, but not to the extent that I think Medvedev only wins this around 30% of the time.

Jannik Sinner Recent Form

Sinner’s form has been absolutely incredible in 2024. He’s lost just five matches and we’re in September. That tells you pretty much all you need to know.

Though he had lost at Wimbledon and in Montreal, Sinner got back on track in Cincinnati, lifting the trophy and since being down a set and break in the opening round against Mackenzie McDonald, he went on a tear, sending Alex Michelsen and Christopher O’Connell packing in short order.

He’s had his issues hitting through Medvedev in the past, so we’ll see how he goes on Wednesday.

Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

After the first few tournaments of the summer hard court swing didn’t go all that well for Medvedev, I think he slipped down the power rankings for those most likely to fare well in New York.

We’ve seen how well Medvedev and his style fit in best-of-five tennis though and he’s been a steady presence in second weeks of grand slams for a while.

Much like Sinner, he’s worked his way into form as the early stages of the tournament has progressed. He lost his second set of the tournament and hasn’t lost one since, with eight of the 11 he’s played being won by a 6-3 score or better.

His wingspan and ability to put serves back in play with such regularity are two of the bigger things that help close the gap with Sinner. With Sinner also rounding into form since the start of Cincinnati, I think this one could be a fun contest.

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev H2H – Stat of the Match

As I said earlier, in terms of their games, it feels like Sinner is so much more imposing from the baseline, yet Medvedev seems to have the gameplan or ability to adjust that gives the Italian major problems.

Not only was the Australian Open final likely his if he didn’t run out of energy, but he avenged that final with a win at Wimbledon in five sets.

In fact, he leads the series 7-5. Now, the big caveat to that is that Sinner had won the previous five matches prior to Wimbledon. That’s to say that this version of Sinner – the one that has risen to be the world No. 1 – has Medvedev’s number.

Yet we’ve seen Medvedev play him close more often than not. I have no reason to believe this time will be any different.

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