Jannik Sinner vs Jack Draper Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, September 6th

The men’s semifinals at the U.S. Open are here! Let’s delve into both matchups, starting with the early contest, set to be played in the afternoon. It’s Jannik Sinner vs Jack Draper.

Draper’s win probability is only 17%, while Sinner is favoured to win at 1.17 odds. The handicap is 6.5 games and the total games line is 36.

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Our Sinner vs Draper prediction is for Draper to cover the handicap.

Jannik Sinner vs Jack Draper Prediction: In Form Draper Finally Breaking Through

• Prediction: Draper +6.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on September 6th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

After the Daniil Medvedev debacle, it’s not exactly like I’m enthused about opposing Sinner again, but 6.5 games against a strong server who is in red hot form and is also a fairly competent returner seems like a lot of games to start with.

Draper has had some bad losses all year, but it’s also been his best season to date, including his maiden trophy on the grass in Stuttgart.

Sinner is the overwhelming favourite to lift the trophy at this point, but I’m not sure why we’re seeing a handicap over six games against someone with the pace, athleticism and ability to play consistent tennis as Draper.

I’m going to go back to the well (however unadvisable it may be) and back Sinner’s opponent.

Jannik Sinner Recent Form

Sinner may have dropped his first set since the very first one he played this tournament last round, but it took a really poor level from him for Medvedev to snag it and the rest of the match was pretty much Sinner in control.

The lack of dynamism from the baseline and nearly one dimensional defensive approach cost Medvedev as Sinner simply outclassed him and refused to donate the unforced errors Medvedev was seeking.

I don’t think Draper will sit back nearly as much, but I’m not sure Sinner will be bothered as someone who enjoys playing from the baseline with pace.

With Taylor Fritz or Frances Tiafoe waiting in the final, this may be an even better opportunity to pick up a trophy at a grand slam event than the Australian Open was, where he won his maiden major.

Jack Draper Recent Form

Still yet to drop a set this tournament, Draper will almost certainly see that run come to an end on Friday. This is easily his best run at a major though, and he’s been lights out. He hasn’t just toppled his lesser opponents with ease, he’s also dispatched Tomas Machac and Alex de Minaur fairly easily.

With a powerful lefty serve and forehand, as well as the ability to play with plenty of rally tolerance, Draper has long been one of the better prospects in the game. He simply had a tough time putting it all together week-in, week-out.

Much of that had to do with physical issues and breaking down when conditions got tougher in terms of heat and humidity.

That is the one concern with this bet and why I don’t want to bet much more on it. It’s expected to be fairly warm and relatively humid on Friday afternoon when this match is expected to take place.

I still don’t think that should impact the handicap to the point it reaches 6.5 games though, and I’m happy to have a standard

Jannik Sinner vs Jack Draper H2H – Stat of the Match

The only prior matchup between these two rising stars came back in 2021 on the grass at Queen’s Club, where Draper won 7-6, 7-6. Though encouraging, it’s been years since that match and the courts at the U.S. Open haven’t been playing anywhere near grass court speeds, so I wouldn’t read too much into that.

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