Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/21/25

Our other quarterfinal preview from the Australian Open comes from the Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur match. It’s a tilt that pits the defending champion and world No. 1 against the home crowd’s best hope of winning a grand slam tournament in the men’s game.

De Minaur’s win probability is about 20%, while Sinner is favoured to win at 1.20 odds. The handicap is 6.5 games and the total games line is 35.

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Jon Reid’s Sinner vs de Minaur prediction is for Sinner to continue his dominance over the Aussie.

Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur Prediction: 

• Prediction: Sinner -6.5 games
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 8:30 pm UK Time on January 20th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

The rare bet in the second week of a major comes in this contest, with me making this a -7 or -7.5 game handicap. Now, de Minaur is a strong player and has improved in the last few years, but the gap between these two when they share a court is still massive.

I don’t think de Minaur has anything to trouble Sinner. He’s an elite returner, but Sinner is one of the biggest servers and hitters from the baseline in the game. Prolonging points in quicker conditions isn’t going to be easy against Sinner, which is the one thing de Minaur will really look to do.

The baseline edge is massively in Sinner’s favour and his first serve, which is the bigger of the two, lands at a higher rate more consistently.

There’s a reason this matchup has been one way traffic for years. The pressure on return tends to be a little more one-sided in the Italian’s favour.

Jannik Sinner Recent Form

Sinner has picked up where he left off a year ago. He won all four of his matches in 2025, with them all coming in Melbourne.

He’s got the best game in the world for my money and has a huge matchup edge here.

I’m going to trust him to keep on doing what he’s doing. What’s more, the likelihood of a lopsided set happening in his favour is far greater than the reverse.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

De Minaur has yet to lose yet in 2025 as well, but I’m a little more concerned for him against the world No. 1.

This is a new level of test and one he hasn’t managed to pass in previous years. Perhaps being on home soil will help, but with the conditions probably neutralising the crowd effect, I wouldn’t be so sure.

The draw hurt his chances of a semifinal here, but hopefully he can continue to improve and make his game stronger in the coming months to give himself a better chance in the future.

Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur H2H – Stat of the Match

If we take the Davis Cup and NextGen Finals out of the equation, Sinner leads de Minaur 6-0. If we include those events, it becomes 9-0. This is becoming one of the more lopsided matchups on tour. Makes sense too, as Sinner is too strong power wise for de Minaur, serves bigger and is a strong returner. With de Minaur struggling to land first serves consistently as often as he does, it’s a pretty simple explanation that he is under far more pressure in this matchup and thus broken more often.

What’s more, de Minaur hasn’t even managed to take a set from the world No. 1 since 202.

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