Yuta Shimizu vs Jelle Sels Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/14/25

With the ATP off for a day at Indian Wells and the semifinals taking place Saturday, we’ll finish the week by looking at a pair of matches from the Challenger circuit. First up, Yuta Shimizu vs Jelle Sels from Cherbourg, France.

Sels’ win probability is about 45%, while Shimizu is favoured to win at 1.68 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s Shimizu vs Jelle Sels prediction is for Shimizu to put in a convincing performance.

Yuta Shimizu vs Jelle Sels Prediction: Shimizu to Once More Capitalise on Favourable Draw

• Prediction: Shimizu to win & Shimizu -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.68 & 2.08
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 3/10

Odds as at 10:40 pm UK Time on March 13th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Betting the diminutive Japanese lefty worked wonders for me earlier this tournament when he went up against the explosive, but volatile, Maxime Janvier. I’m going to look to utilise his lefty skill set in the betting markets once more on Friday, as he takes on Sels and his less-than-stellar one-handed backhand.

Shimizu plays a lefty game that relies on consistency, smarts and using the entirety of the court’s dimensions to open up space for himself from the baseline. Last time out he took on someone that didn’t have the consistency to stick with him or the sufficient tennis IQ to problem solve on the go. This time it’s an out of form ITF grinder that has a one handed backhand the lefty can pick on with his rock solid and spin-heavy forehand.

I’m happy to back a player at 1.68 odds when I have the odds much, much lower than that.

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Yuta Shimizu Recent Form

As is often the case with underpowered players at the Challenger level, it’s been an up-and-down start to the year for Shimizu, who was just 4-6 entering this week. It’s tough when you’re underpowered, as oftentimes you’re relying on opponents to make mistakes in order to win. In other words, the match isn’t on your racquet.

That was the case when Shimizu came up against the likes of Patrick Kypson, Billy Harris, Christian Langmo and Aziz Dougaz in four of his six defeats. Now, Sels can strike the ball a bit harder than he can, but it’s not nearly big enough to really just power him off the court.

Much like the last round against the firepower of Janvier, Shimizu should find this matchup to be manageable enough.

I like his style, even if it lacks and there’s a cap to how much success a player like him can have. It should work wonders on Friday.

Jelle Sels Recent Form

After a positively horrific 2023 season, Sels spent the bulk of the first half of 2024 grinding away back on the ITF Tour. He did well enough to find his way back into Challengers, but since early October, things have not been pretty.

Since qualifying for the main draw in Roanne, France in the fall, Sels has posted a record of 6-15 across all levels (ITF Tour, Challenger qualifying and Challenger main draws). A third of those wins came this week in the opening rounds, as Sels beat a washed up and struggling Antoine Escoffier and Adrien Gobat – a Frenchman who entered the week outside the world’s top-1000.

His errors have been a real concern and against Shimizu, that’s going to be tough to overcome. His one hander on the backhand wing is also a concern seeing as he’s taking on a lefty that can spin his forehand crosscourt into that groundstroke relentlessly and with the Japanese’s solidity, it’s not likely he’ll be the first to miss in those exchanges.

Tough matchup for Sels, and considering he’s been putrid for months, I have no idea why he’s getting this much respect in the betting markets.

He’s also retired in each of his last two losses when down a set and break, so we have to wonder if he’s at his best physically. Either way, I’m taking the moneyline as well as the handicap to ensure should he do that again, I walk away with something.

Yuta Shimizu vs Jelle Sels H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time the two have met one another in a professional match.

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