Mayar Sherif vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, News, H2H - 5/10/24

Mayar Sherif and Jasmine Paolini are set up for a second-round clash in Section 5 at the Italian Open on Thursday. Native Italian Paolini has the line setters expecting an easy advancement past the Egyptian Sherif at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome.

This will be the second meeting between Sherif and Paolini, and their last battle was also on clay in Croatia last year. Sherif took a 2 – 1 win to the next round getting past favored Paolini, so being favored means absolutely nothing.

Ej Garr is offering another play with plus-money value attached to the action because that’s what he does here at bettingexpert. Grab Ej’s Sherif vs Paolini prediction at +152 Odds below. 

SHERIF VS PAOLINI PREDICTION: TAKING IT TO THE LIMIT

• Prediction: Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: +152 (2.52)
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time May 10, 2024. Odds may now differ.

For the last time this week, I am going with another prop on the Over 2.5 sets offer from Pinnacle at +152. 

Sherif and Paolini met last year on clay at the Makarska event in Croatia, and Sherif pounded out a 3-set victory over the Italian. Being in her native Italy is all well and good, but I don’t think Paolini is going to easily get past Sherif in Rome.

The line setters seem to disagree with me placing Paolini as the favorite at -225, and that is quite a high line full of juice. You know we don’t play around with that juice stuff around here because I don’t work for HI-C!

This is a WTA-1000 event which means every advancement puts a nice sum of cash in your pocket. A $60,000 paycheck awaits the players who reach the round of 16 in Rome, and I see both ladies putting up a fight to get there.

Sherif has a certain confidence playing on clay, and I think it gives her the edge in this match even if she has to play an Italian in Rome. Since returning to the WTA tour in 2019, Sherif has put up six straight years with a winning record on clay.

I understand that most of Sherif’s clay titles have come in lower-level tournaments but when you have earned nine trophies on this surface, that is still impressive. 

I mentioned the last time they met in Croatia, and I expect this match to go the distance as it did on that day in June last year. It’s time for a bonus bet again, so are you ready?

Will there be a tie-break in any set? You are damn right there will be, and +245 is sitting at DraftKings here in New York for me to hit. You should do the same, but don’t leave off the Over 2.5 sets action at +152 over at Pinnacle.

Did you notice that even though Paolini is heavily favored to win the match the odds on Sherif to win a set is -145? That’s a perfect formula to expect no less than a 3-set affair when Sherif and Paolini hit the court in Rome on Friday.

MAYAR SHERIF RECENT FORM

Sherif is 6 – 4 on clay this season, and it is the only surface where she has a winning record in her entire career. She was 24 – 10 on clay in 2023 but recorded a 6 – 15 record on hard courts and grass combined.

Sherif has won nine clay tournaments since 2020, the most notable being in Pama, Italy in 2022.

JASMINE PAOLINI RECENT FORM

Paolini has four clay court titles to her credit, the last win coming in 2023 in Florence, Italy. 

Jasmine is 4 – 2 on this surface in 2024 and was an impressive 16 – 8 on clay a season ago.

Another impressive performance came in Dubai this past February, as she earned a trophy with four quality wins as an underdog.

SHERIF VS PAOLINI HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH:

Sherif and Paolini met once in 2023 in Croatia, and it took 3-sets to decide the eventual winner. 

The second set of that affair needed a tie-break to force a third set, and Ej predicts that we will see another tie-breaking set today in Rome.

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