Mayar Sherif vs Francisca Jorge Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/5/24

Our second preview from the WTA’s MundoTenis Open comes from the Mayar Sherif vs Francisca Jorge match, as the Egyptian clay courter looks to continue her strong run of form.

Jorge’s win probability is only 16.5%, with Sherif coming in as a huge favourite at 1.11 odds. The handicap is six games and the total games line is 18.5.

Jon Reid’s Sherif vs Jorge prediction is for Jorge to cover the handicap.

Mayar Sherif vs Francisca Jorge Prediction: Jorge Too Strong to be Massive Underdog

• Prediction: Over 18.5 Games & Jorge +6.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91 & 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on December 5th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I can’t fault Sherif’s form and she’s certainly one of the best players to compete at this 125K level on red clay. That said, this is disrespectful to a player that has talent, is by no means a no-name middling player on the ITF Tour and who is comfortable on clay.

If Jorge was awful on the surface, or in really poor form, or didn’t have anything to her game, or struggled on the lower level tour, I could understand Sherif being this big of a favourite. Not one of those characterizations would be accurate when it comes to the world No. 188.

The other concern for Sherif is that this is now her third straight week in action (I’m not counting the first week in South America in Bolivia, where she played three total games in one match before retiring). What’s more, she made the semis a few weeks ago in Colina, then won last week in Buenos Aires (blowing a huge second set lead and forcing her into a physical three set battle) and is now trying to do it again this week.

There has to be some sort of fatigue setting in.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Mayar Sherif Recent Form

As I alluded to above, there is no questioning the form of the 28-year-old. She’s used this late-season surge to re-enter the top-100 and 9-1 since the start of the Colina 125K.

She has a decent serve and plays with an extreme grip that generates a load of topspin. There are still holes to her game (power and movement being two of them), but she has been racking up the wins.

I do have concerns though. She’s been pushed in sets by players she should dominate, while also dropping sets to some mediocre to subpar players as well. It’s not like she’s won a title without dropping a set and is on such a hot streak that bookmakers are taking a flood of money and having to adjust odds to protect themselves.

I can’t see any value in backing her and think there’s plenty in opposing her with a quality player that may be struggling, but is certainly too strong to be disrespected to this extent.

Francisca Jorge Recent Form

The form hasn’t been the strongest during her South American tour – which is surely playing a role in her being such a large underdog – with a disappointing error-filled match last week against Leolia Jeanjean and last round starting out really poorly against Ekaterina Makarova.

She is having the best season of her career though and is a top-200 player for a reason. She has decent surface versatility, typically plays a consistent style and if you sleep on her forehand, she’s capable of punishing you from that wing as well.

I do think Sherif’s superior resume in recent years paired with Jorge’s middling form make the Portuguese the underdog, but I can’t get to 6.5 games on the handicap or a sub-20% valuation for her to win in this spot.

Mayar Sherif vs Francisca Jorge H2H – Stat of the Match

The most probable reason for this price drifting out so much is that Sherif did dominate Jorge in their lone meeting a few weeks ago in Chile.

Even that 6-1, 6-4 win barely covers a 6.5-game handicap though and was one of the worst performances you’ll see from Jorge. Expecting that kind of tail outcome from her again as the most likely outcome is irresponsible in my view.

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