Ben Shelton vs Stanislas Wawrinka Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/24/24

Our first preview of the day comes from the Swiss Indoors Basel – the ATP’s other 500-level tournament being played this week. Let’s look at a clash of different generations in the Ben Shelton vs Stanislas Wawrinka match.

Wawrinka’s win probability is only 31%, while Shelton is favored to win at 1.36 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

Jon Reid’s Shelton vs Wawrinka prediction is for Shelton to cover the handicap.

Ben Shelton vs Stanislas Wawrinka Prediction: Wawrinka Vulnerable Against Young Lefty

• Prediction: Shelton -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 12:30 am UK Time on October 24th, 2024. 

First, I’m beginning to trust Shelton’s return game a bit more than I used to. The second is that though Wawrinka has been really strong on serve recently, a long week in Stockholm coupled with a three-setter on Wednesday is a concern for me. Perhaps this first set is a close one, but as the point total runs up, I am confident we may start to see the effects of all that tennis in the Swiss veteran’s legs, and the serve potentially lose some potency.

Finally, there’s the fact that this is a numbers game and I do think this has to be a -3 game spread in the 1.80 region at the very least. That means to me, there’s enough value to attack in this spot.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Ben Shelton Recent Form

Even though I still believe Shelton has a few parts of his game that he could tighten up and will have to if he wants to join the ranks of the elite on the ATP Tour, he has proven that if you’re not a fellow talented youngster or among the best in the game yourself, it’s really hard to send him packing.

The talent is top shelf. He has a huge serve, massive forehand, moves wonderfully, and can hit sublime shots from anywhere on the court. The weaknesses? Thinking through points, knowing when to be patient, point construction, and an inconsistent return game.

It’s those final four things that separate the very, very good from the elite.

Fortunately for him, on Thursday, he won’t be playing one of the best players out there. Wawrinka was once among that group, but major limitations in his movement, stamina, and return game have limited how much he can do on the court.

He’ll be able to hit with Shelton – at least for a bit – and he may keep that first set close with strong serving, but I wouldn’t get too worked up as more often than not we should see him fade enough for the American to cover this handicap.

Stanislas Wawrinka Recent Form

After months of struggling and seeing his ranking plummet, Wawrinka has almost out of nowhere won five of his last seven matches between Shanghai, Stockholm, and now Basel. His win against Adrian Mannarino had the home crowd thrilled and he can use all the wins he can get as he looks to climb back to the top-100.

The ranking may not be too important, as he’s announced he doesn’t have plans to retire at the moment and he can probably pick up wild cards with his pedigree and ability to sell tickets as a fan favorite, but I’m sure he’d like to avoid leaning on those.

As for his actual game these days, it’s incredibly reliant on his serve and pop from the baseline and, to his credit, even at 39 years old, he is capable of punishing tennis balls.

The problem is, he’s playing a player that can match him (even exceed him) in that regard, is much younger, and is much better at getting around the court.

He nearly lost to Mannarino because when forced to move around the court, he looked vulnerable. What’s more, outside of the first two return games of the match where Mannarino threw away several points with silly errors, Wawrinka didn’t generate a break point until the final game of the match when he broke the Frenchman’s serve to advance.

I can’t trust him playing the very next day against a guy who may not get more than one or two chances to break and who has a much bigger game than him.

Ben Shelton vs Stanislas Wawrinka H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two pros who are separated in age by about 17 years.

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