Ben Shelton vs Frances Tiafoe Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 30th

We’ll round out the month by looking at the first day of third round action from the U.S. Open in New York City. Ben Shelton vs Frances Tiafoe presents us with a tantalising all-American matchup that one could describe as must-watch TV!

Tiafoe’s win probability is in the 43% range, with Shelton entering as the favourite to win at 1.68 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 41.

Jon Reid’s Shelton vs Tiafoe prediction is for a match full of long, close sets!

Ben Shelton vs Frances Tiafoe Prediction: Expect Long, Tight Match on Ashe

• Prediction: 1st Set Over 10.5 Games, 1st Set Over 12.5 Games
• Best Odds: 2.71 & 3.62
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 1/10 & 1/10

Odds updated at 2:30 am UK Time on August 30th, 2024. 

While the selections themselves may look more like predictions over outcomes than odds assessments, I’m stunned that we’re seeing the odds on the first set to reach 5-5 below 40% and then a tiebreak expected just over 25% of the time.

It has to be almost entirely based on the fact that these two haven’t really played many tiebreaks against one another in the past. That’s a fair assessment, I suppose, but knowing how strong they both are on serve, while also being poor returners, I don’t think a sample of six sets is enough to start believing that a first set tiebreak only occurs about a quarter of the time.

As a result, I’ll also look to play the first set to reach 5-5 (aka over 10.5 games) and I’m also going to take a small punt on the tiebreak in the opener.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page, along with a slew of content for this weekend’s slate of football!

Ben Shelton Recent Form

Some of the younger of the two countrymen’s best tennis has been played this week. He has had trouble all season finding breaks of serve, but this week he’s done so with aplomb.

In fact, he hasn’t needed a single tiebreak in six sets won. The problem with that is, he’s playing a soon-to-be-retired Dominic Thiem and an ageing and underpowered Roberto Bautista Agut.

Tiafoe is a different beast, with a much larger serve and forehand combination and aggressive game. If he can find consistent breaks of serve in this match, I’ll be the first to suggest that perhaps his return game is turning a corner. I’ll believe it when I see it though.

Frances Tiafoe Recent Form

Back on home soil, Tiafoe has made the summer his own to this point, reaching the semifinals of his home town tournament at the ATP 500 in Washington, D.C. before going one step further by making the final at the Masters event in Cincinnati.

We know he also thrives under the microscope at the grand slam level. He’s done well here before and his first real head-turning result came down under at the Australian Open.

He has the aggressive, powerful game for hard courts, can out-do almost anyone physically on court and is rarely troubled by the added tennis of the best-of-five format.

Now, sometimes he has lapses in big moments and for his build and game style, his return game is lacking, but you can always trust him to put on a show.

Ben Shelton vs Frances Tiafoe H2H – Stat of the Match

Shelton has won each of the two matchups these two have played. The first came here last season in four sets. The other was a few months ago in Houston on “clay” (it almost plays like a hard court in speed and bounce) in three sets.

Each match these two have contested has ended up being pretty close and I wouldn’t doubt this one being that way as well.

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