Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/21/25

We’re into the quarterfinals at the Australian Open, and we’ll take a look at the Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego match.

Sonego’s win probability is below 30%, while Shelton is favoured to win at 1.35 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 42.

Jon Reid’s Shelton vs Sonego prediction is for this match to be close and to pass on betting it.

Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction: Serve Dominant Players Should Play Close Encounter

I know for many that betting the biggest matches is often exciting and enticing, but it’s important with fewer matches taking place and the best players in the world often being well known to the betting market, actually finding an edge in these matchups is going to be tougher.

That doesn’t mean that I won’t be betting the matches, but that it’s unlikely I have anything over a standard staking size. I’ll get to some Challenger previews for bets the remainder of the week, but I did want to preview this match to reinforce the importance of understanding that these weeks can be tougher to find smart bets in.

As for the match itself, I think a total of over 40 games is appropriate. Shelton is the much better player, but his return game – something he said he’s actively been working on – still isn’t up to par and it appears as though that’s going to be a lengthy process before it starts bearing fruit.

I’m not keen on Sonego and his weak backhand either with only about 3.5-4 games on the handicap.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Ben Shelton Recent Form

As usual, Shelton’s talent and explosive game have carried him deep into a major, with this being his second quarterfinal appearance in three years playing the tournament (lost in the third round last year against a tricky lefty in Adrian Mannarino).

At this point, it’s pretty well established that the American has one of the more powerful games on tour, but his ability to construct points and his inefficient movement, along with the really poor return of serve making it hard on himself to break his opponents has held him back from reaching the very top of the men’s game.

Even this season, he’s really struggled to break more than 20% of the time in any given match, as he continues to play much closer matches than he should need to against competition that isn’t anywhere near his level in terms of talent.

Lorenzo Sonego Recent Form

Though he is overmatched here against the American, especially with Shelton likely able to target his weaker backhand wing more easily than most.

The important thing for him in this match is going to be to serve as well as he has through four rounds so far in Melbourne. So far, his strong first serve has helped him in a big way, as he’s only been broken four times in four matches. With a few of his matches going long, that equates to a hold rate of 95%. Now, quality of competition matters, but with Shelton’s return game typically being his weakness, that bodes well for the underdog in this one.

If he can manage to serve as he has to this point, there may very well be value on his 3.46 price, but I’m not convinced by his fairly simple game.

Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have met twice in the past, with Shelton winning the first encounter in Cincinnati in the three setter and then Sonego winning the rematch in 2023 at the French Open in straight sets.

Safer Gambling

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