Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/25/24

As we round out the opening quarter of 2024, we’ll look to find some winners from the Miami Open. For our final preview for Monday’s tennis action, let’s look at our Shelton vs Musetti prediction from the ATP draw. Musetti’s win probability is just 29.7% while Shelton is favored to win at 1.36 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Shelton vs Musetti Prediction: Huge Serving Lefty to Channel Crowd and Power Past Musetti

• Predictions: Shelton -3 Games & -3.5 Games (creating a -3.25 Asian Handicap)
• Best Odds: 1.82 & 2.04
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds as of 2:45 am UK Time on March 25th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I was impressed by the way Musetti played on Sunday in his victory against Roman Safiullin. Ironically, however, the style he employed to get by the Russian is one I’m not sure will be as effective against Shelton.

Not only was Musetti underpowered overall and really vulnerable behind the second serve, but he played a level of defense that I think is going to be incredibly difficult to replicate. Throw in the fact that Shelton plays with more rally tolerance, is incredibly aggressive against second serves, and isn’t likely to miss easy shot after easy shot in the forecourt, and I can’t see Musetti – who was pressured plenty on serve in the early going – keeping this one close.

I’ve moderated the staking a bit, because I do believe on return, and tactically, Shelton tends to underperform, but this is the rare occasion where I think the matchup suits him covering the handicap as a favorite beautifully. My Shelton vs Musetti prediction is for Shelton to cover the -3.5 games handicap. 

Check out our Expert Insights section for a few more previews from Jon Reid for Monday’s action in Miami!

Ben Shelton Recent Form

I’m not sure you can consider Shelton’s start to 2024 as a disappointment since he has reached a pair of semifinals at the 250 level, a quarterfinal in a 500, and then the second week of Indian Wells.

He hasn’t dominated matches the way you would expect from a top-20 player though either. His ultra aggressiveness and willingness to rely on his athleticism and shotmaking, rather than constructing points and approaching matches from a more tactical perspective has meant a lot of players keeping matches closer than you’d expect.

He was able to pick up a nice straight-sets win on Sunday though, against a burgeoning prospect in the men’s game with a big game in Martin Landaluce. That was an encouraging sign, simply because those with power have often made it tough on Shelton, who still has a lot to learn as it pertains to the return game.

Now, Musetti is obviously further along than the Spanish up-and-comer and he is far more well-rounded, but he also lacks the power to keep the aggressive return style of Shelton from pressuring his service games.

Musetti has had his struggles with timing on the backhand as well on quicker courts and against big hitters.

This is a great chance for Shelton to pick up yet another clean, straight-sets win and get the American crowd hyped up for a potential deep run in South Florida!

Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

Musetti’s win on Sunday was his first on a relatively quick court in quite some time, and only second since Australia.

Without much power to generate offense, a game based around consistency and the ability to generate angles, and a one-handed backhand that prefers a bit more time to set up shots, he’s not exactly built for success when the courts help speed things up.

That backhand weakness is only amplified when he’s taking on a powerful lefty, which is the case on Monday evening.

Forget the crowd he’s competing against, I’m just wondering if he’ll be able to extend the points half as effectively as he did against Safiullin. Even if he does, will he make the same head-scratching mistakes?

He’s struggled this year with the likes of Tomas Machac (seven-game margin of defeat), Arthur Cazaux (three games), and Tallon Griekspoor (actually won more games, but lost a pair of tiebreaks) on quicker courts. Shelton probably falls somewhere between Machac and Griekspoor as a returner, but his power beats them all.

I don’t think many players are remaining in the draw that are looking forward to the coming clay season more than Musetti.

Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Musetti H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone meeting between these two took place last year on grass. Musetti actually came away victorious in that one, illustrating how raw Shelton’s talent can be. Now, grass can be a tough surface to get accustomed to for the first time, so I can excuse Shelton’s loss there, but it’s still a surface that should’ve rewarded his game far more than the Italian’s.

Now on a quicker court with a big-time advantage in the power department and a monster lefty game that should be able to pin Musetti to his weaker backhand side in cross-court exchanges, Shelton has no excuse not to emerge as the clear-cut winner from this tilt.

Elo-wise, we see a near-200-point edge for Shelton in the blended ratings (that grows to over 200 points when we look at the raw elo rating). Even in men’s tennis, on a fairly quick court, a discrepancy that large would normally garner a 4-4.5 game handicap. For the market to be more cautious with how Shelton plays on return, I understand, but to get almost down to -3 games? That’s a bit much.

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