Ben Shelton vs Pavel Kotov Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, May 10th

Our second ATP preview for Friday at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia features Ben Shelton vs Pavel Kotov, as we look to stake out another profitable position using a surface advantage. Jon Reid’s Shelton vs Kotov prediction at 2.75 odds is available below!

Kotov’s win probability is only 35.1%, with Shelton favored to win at 1.49 odds. The handicap is three games and the total game line is 22.5.

Shelton vs Kotov Prediction: American Favourite Vulnerable on the Clay

• Prediction: Kotov to win
• Best Odds: 2.75
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on May 10th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I won’t be taking this one at 7/10 like the last, but there’s certainly value in the underdog to win with his implied probabilities checking in at under 40%.

Shelton fared well in Houston this year, which plays quickly as the clay is supplied by Har Tru (the company that does the faster green clay found in the south of the United States). Other than that result, nothing is inspiring in the least on the dirt.

Our expert insights page has more previews for Friday in the tennis world, including some WTA content. Our Shelton vs Kotov prediction is for Kotov to win.

Ben Shelton Recent Form

Shelton had a strong week in Houston on the clay after Indian Wells and that has skewed his data and made the market believe he’s improved on the surface as a whole.

As I alluded to earlier, however, Houston has some of the quickest clay on tour and isn’t at all predictive of one’s success on the slower European clay.

Even in Madrid, where his serve should’ve helped him, he was eliminated by a fellow clay hater in Bublik.

His style also doesn’t do him any favors on the dirt. He’s ultra-aggressive and plays a boom-or-bust style that relies on quicker points to be successful.

Point construction is his biggest weakness, one of the most important keys to success on clay courts at sea level. I’m not buying this valuation on the American.

Pavel Kotov Recent Form

We spotted Kotov as poorly priced in the first round. It appears as though the market undervaluation on him is going to be more sustained than I had thought it would be after he thrashed Alex Michelsen 6-1 6-1.

He’s far more natural on the surface, and has proven more and stylistically he may not have the raw power of Shelton, but he certainly has a big enough game to find holds of serve against a fairly poor returner.

I’ll go ahead and back home once more this week.

Ben Shelton vs Pavel Kotov H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meetings between these two to break down.

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