Denis Shapovalov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/25/24

Our second preview of the day comes from the ATP 500 Swiss Indoors Basel, as we look at the Denis Shapovalov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard matchup.

Mpetshi Perricard’s win probability is under 40%, while Shapovalov is favored to win at 1. odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 25.

Jon Reid’s Shapovalov vs Mpetshi Perricard prediction is for the Frenchman to pull off the upset.

Denis Shapovalov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Prediction: Shapovalov Overvalued After Win Against Tired Veteran

• Prediction: 1st Set Over 12.5 Games & Mpetshi Perricard to win
• Best Odds: 2.50 & 2.69
• Bookmaker: bet365 & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 3/10

Odds updated at 1:30 am UK Time on October 25th, 2024. 

First and foremost, a tiebreak between these two is something I’d have happening more often than 40% of the time, not just because neither is a particularly strong returner, but also because both are very capable servers and the conditions lend themselves to quick holds of serve.

The other reason I like a close contest is that they both have one-handed backhands that can be rushed in quicker conditions (though Mpetshi Perricard can redline on that side on occasion) and with each hitting their forehands crosscourt into one another’s backhand wing, there should be plenty of quick points that follow that script.

Sure, Shapovalov can throw away the occasional service game with double faults and silly errors, but that doesn’t mean I’d have this getting to a tiebreak under 40% of the time.

Further, because Shapovalov is far more likely to throw points away on serve, he’s the more likely player to be broken and the more likely player to find himself behind in tiebreaks through his own mistakes.

That makes me believe Mpetshi Perricard should be given far greater than a 40% chance to win this match.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Denis Shapovalov Recent Form

Shapovalov has looked a bit better of late, but there are still a lot of questions that remain unanswered for the one-time promising Canadian prospect.

Can he win at a greater than 50% clip against top-100 opposition? Can he make deep runs in ATP fields? Will he ever reduce the double fault count, learn to construct points or become more patient?

He may be 5-1 in his last five matches, but a closer look at those matches leaves one feeling rather uninspired. The first win came in qualifying in Shanghai against a Challenger player and in the final qualifying round, Shapovalov lost the first set and only advanced because Sho Shimabukuro retired in the second frame.

In the main draw, he snuck past Lorenzo Sonego (also in terrible form since the U.S. Open) in a pair of tiebreaks and this week has a decent win against Juncheng Shang and another against an aging Roberto Bautista Agut who had a long week in Antwerp and played three sets the day before to get past Casper Ruud.

He has far too much to prove to me before I consider him a big favorite against one of the sport’s biggest servers at a tournament played in rather quick conditions.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Recent Form

Since shooting up the rankings with a second-round run at Wimbledon (accomplished as a lucky loser), it’s been a rough summer for Mpetshi Perricard. He suffered a lot of close losses to accomplished tour-level pros once he was able to enter ATP Tour tournaments directly. That’s the curse of the sudden success.

His game is still reliant on his serve, but luckily for him, Basel – much like Wimbledon and grass courts – is played on a surface that almost disproportionately rewards a serve of his size.

Entering his match on Thursday against Felix Auger Aliassime, Tennis Insights had his serve as the best on the main circuit, rated 9.5 on a scale of 10.

That alone allows him to keep matches close and makes it tough to rationalize a valuation of sub-40%. Throw in an opponent who is out of form, commits a lot of errors, and isn’t known for his on-court adjustments or returning skills and I think this price is way too cheap on Mpetshi Perricard.

Denis Shapovalov vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meetings have been contested between these two.

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