Denis Shapovalov vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 11/8/24

Our first preview of the day comes from the ATP 250 Belgrade Open. Let’s look at Denis Shapovalov vs Jiri Lehecka.

Lehehcka’s win probability is only 44%, while Shapovalov is favored to win at 1.69 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

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Jon Reid’s prediction for Shapovalov vs Lehecka is that Lehecka will win.

Denis Shapovalov vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction: Back Underdog in High Octane Affair

• Prediction: Lehecka to win
• Best Odds: 2.28
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 1:30 am UK Time on November th, 2024. 

Perhaps the form has the market buying back in on Shapovalov, or maybe he really has found his stride. I’m still skeptical about his play, however, and I’m not sure if we take the bodies of work these guys have put forth the last year or two that we can get to a place where Shapovalov is a fairly clear favourite here.

Sure, he has firepower, but then again, so does Lehecka. I’d argue that Lehecka has played near the top of his game far more often than Shapovalov though, doesn’t suffer from the same kind of issues with double faults and has bounced back nicely from the Antwerp final and Basel opening round where he looked tired.

With two players that play aggressive, power oriented games and one who has done so at a higher level more often and has fewer faults to his game, I think you have to back that player at underdog odds.

Denis Shapovalov Recent Form

There’s no doubt that Shapovalov is feeling it right now. The streaky lefty doesn’t have much point construction to his game and doesn’t really have much of a game plan beyond “hit as hard as possible” but when that strategy works, he can be tough to beat.

It’s also a style that makes him an intriguing underdog to back. That same style means he’s tough to trust as a favourite though and is a big part of why I’ll take a shot opposing him.

He’s dropped just one set this week through qualifying and the main draw to this point, but I’d make the case that this is the best opponent he’s played yet and one that has a decent amount of power himself to push the Canadian.

Jiri Lehecka Recent Form

Lehecka had a nice comeback on Thursday against Lukas Klein from a set and break down and should be well-prepared for this test.

Though he hasn’t taken on a southpaw yet this week, Marin Cilic and Klein both play serve-centric, powerful tennis that should have the Czech ready to deal with the pace coming at him from the Shapovalov side of the net.

With a big serve and forehand combination of his own, he should be able to keep things closer than the likes of Nuno Borges or Chris O’Connell managed to. They’re both more underpowered players that Shapovalov can bully around the court when he’s hitting his spots.

Denis Shapovalov vs Jiri Lehecka H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone meeting between these two came in the early part of the 2022 season, when Lehecka beat Shapovalov 6-4, 6-4 indoors in Rotterdam.

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