Shang vs van Assche Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/18/24

We’re back after a bit of an absence. I’m not too fond of betting on and writing up ITF Tour matches, but this week we have the ATP’s NextGen Finals, where the top young players in the professional ranks compete in a differently formatted competition for some serious cash.

Let’s look at Juncheng Shang vs Luca van Assche, which kicks off the group stage of the competition!

Van Assche’s win probability is about 30%, while Shang is favoured to win at 1.36 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

Jon Reid’s Shang vs van Assche prediction is for Shang to cover the handicap.

Juncheng Shang vs Luca van Assche Prediction: Oppose One of the Few Low Ceiling Players in Event

• Prediction: Shang -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 10:00 pm UK Time on December 17th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

The first thing that has to be mentioned when we look at the NextGen finals? The format. It is not like the traditional scoring system on tour and with shorter sets (first to four games, tiebreak at 3-3), the variance increases and the likelihood of winning in straight sets decreases (it’s also a best-of-five set format).

That said, the favourite here is the bet for me. At a handicap of just 3.5 games, I can’t get past Shang. His serve has been pretty strong, especially in quick conditions and against lower level opponents and he’s playing an underpowered van Assche who just had a tough season and is now staring down a much more powerful and talented player on an opposite trajectory.

I’ll gladly take the shot at -3.5 with the lefty in this spot, especially since this has moved from a 1.73 price point to even money since the market opened.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Juncheng Shang Recent Form

It wasn’t the most dominant end to the year for Shang, but his last three losses were to a Denis Shapovalov that ended up finding serious form at the end of the year, Marcos Giron in two tiebreaks and Fabian Marozsan from 6-2 up and in two very tight sets in the second and third.

I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt, since those are all tour level players at this point and all have decent weapons to hold their own on court with Shang.

Prior to that, Shang managed to lift his maiden trophy on home soil in Chengdu in quicker conditions and had reached the third round of the U.S. Open, losing from two sets up against Casper Ruud after he ran out of gas.

His form is strong and his game is well clear of his opponent on the day in this one.

Luca van Assche Recent Form

While Shang was playing the end of his 2024 season on the main circuit, winning a title and then playing some decent, though not great, tennis down the stretch, van Assche was struggling against players on the lower Challenger Tour and in ATP qualifying.

Gijs Brouwer, Radu Albot, Justin Engel, Jozek Kovalik and Gregoire Barrere are not names that one will find on a consistent basis playing on the world’s best tour.

They all beat the diminutive Frenchman from the U.S. Open onwards.

I’m not sure why the market is backing him in this spot (perhaps the format?), but he’s underpowered, out of form, has a low ceiling and is the second best player in terms of talent in this match, and it’s not particularly close.

Juncheng Shang vs Luca van Assche H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two youngsters.

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