Juncheng Shang vs Nishesh Basavareddy Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/19/24

Our first preview of Thursday sees us going back to the well with one player, despite that player letting us down on Wednesday. Let’s look at Juncheng Shang vs Nishesh Basavareddy.

Basavareddy’s win probability is 40%, with Shang entering favoured to win at 1.53 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.

Jon Reid’s Shang vs Basavareddy prediction is for Shang to cover the handicap.

Juncheng Shang vs Nishesh Basavareddy Prediction: Trust Shang One More Time Indoors

• Prediction: Shang -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 11:00 pm UK Time on December 18th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

This may be foolish – and I am sizing down in a big way in my staking today – but I can’t get past Shang being clear of guys like Basavareddy, Luca van Assche and a Learner Tien (you can find a preview on his match on the Expert Insights page).

I’m aware he struggles indoors for whatever reason (more on that in a second) and that Basavareddy has a nasty backhand, which van Assche was able to utilise in pulling off the upset Wednesday, but this price has Shang winning under two thirds of the time against a guy that had to scratch and claw his way into the Australian Open main draw via the American reciprocal wild card at low end American and Mexican Challengers in the last few months.

There’s a reason for that. He simply isn’t very good. His serve is exploitable, his forehand offers very little against main tour professionals and though his backhand and solidity do ensure he isn’t totally at his opponent’s mercy, they don’t do enough to push him into the 35-40% range against Shang for me.

This is my last time backing Shang indoors if he loses this one as well. In a must-win situation for both, one has to think the more talented of the two will find something on return sooner rather than later.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Juncheng Shang Recent Form

It has not been pretty indoors this season for Shang. Just 2-4 now in 2024 when playing on a hard court indoors, it’s puzzling, since he’s just fine when playing outdoors and on quicker surfaces (which indoor courts tend to be). Heck, you’d think that with his physical issues in the past and penchant for running out of steam in the heat, that playing indoors would be preferred.

Perhaps it’s the trajectory of the ball coming off the court or the way it may skid more often that leaves him less time, or maybe he just has a tougher time reading opposition serves (his return numbers have been pitiful in a lot of his losses). Either way, something is up.

Nevertheless, he’s got a much stronger serve, can stick in longer rallies, has some scintillating shotmaking abilities and has the vastly superior forehand for my money.

Even against a strong backhand and returner, one would hope he’s a bit better prepared this time around, after seeing those two strengths in van Assche really hurt him.

Maybe this is just an issue he needs a year or two to work through as he becomes more and more accustomed to playing on the slicker indoor surfaces. If that’s the case, I’ll back off after this match. For now, we continue on.

Nishesh Basavareddy Recent Form

Since the U.S. Open, Basavareddy ripped off 28 wins (against just six losses) prior to the Nex Gen Finals to both qualify for this tournament and earn himself the wild card the USTA hands out for the Australian Open main draw.

All credit to him. There is no doubt that he’s an incredibly hard worker and is forced to think his way through matches far more often than some of his more talented peers if he wants to win tournaments.

Now, for the negative part. If I haven’t put it simply enough already, Basavareddy is out of his depth against the likes of Shang or Arthur Fils or Joao Fonseca. Heck, even Alex Michelsen is well clear of him at this point in talent and game development.

There is a lack of power that is going to keep him from making any kind of serious breakthrough and the tournaments he accrued the vast majority of his points in weren’t the type of events that contained many strong players in the draw.

Perhaps he can frustrate Shang as van Assche did. I wouldn’t bank on it though.

Juncheng Shang vs Nishesh Basavareddy H2H – Stat of the Match

First career meeting between Shang and Basavareddy.

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