Ella Seidel vs Carole Monnet Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/9/24

It’s the final week of the season for all those not planning to head down and play on the ITF Tour! The WTA circuit heads to Limoges for the annual BLS Open de Limoges. For our second preview of the day, let’s look at Ella Seidel vs Carole Monnet.

Monnet’s win probability is slightly higher than 40%, while Seidel is favoured to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 21.

Jon Reid’s Seidel vs Monnet prediction is for Seidel to win in relatively comfortable fashion.

Ella Seidel vs Carole Monnet Prediction: Seidel Not Enough of a Favourite Indoors Against Underpowered and Low Level Opponent

• Prediction: Seidel -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on December 9th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’m not sure what I’m missing here, but there is no way that this handicap should be any less than four games in the favour of the up-and-coming Seidel.

She has the bigger game, more talent, the bigger serve to find quick, cheaper points and is the better hard courter in a matchup of players who would likely prefer to play on the dirt.

Then there’s the fact that she’s played much tougher competition for almost the entirety of the 2024 season and held up well, surging into the world’s top-150 players.

Finally, Seidel’s primary weakness is her propensity to hit unforced errors. On a quicker indoor hard court, that vulnerability is best exploited by someone who can pressure her or take time away from her, which tends to cause her to try and go too big on balls she doesn’t have enough time on.

Monnet is the opposite of that, as a grinder that doesn’t really possess much power. She may be able to prolong rallies by a few extra balls, but without rushing Seidel from the baseline, she’ll be reliant on the German missing a lot of sitters and easy shots. In other words, by my estimation, she’ll need a pretty bad day from Seidel to be as competitive as the market seems to think she’ll be.

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Ella Seidel Recent Form

I’m excited to see what the German teen can do this week, as I think her game is built for long-term success. There are some holes and the “controlled” part of “controlled aggression” does need some serious work, but there is no doubting her talent and ability to really dictate play and strike the ball so cleanly.

Things haven’t gone all that well of late, but as always, looking at the strength of a player’s wins and losses is probably the most important thing one can do when looking to handicap this sport.

Two of her most recent five losses came to players that have established themselves as regulars on the main tour. Another pair came to a very defensive player that has a bit more variety to her game and is playing the best tennis of her life, back in Guangzhou, and the fifth was probably a disappointing one, but her opponent (Elena Pridankina) is a young talent to watch as well.

All in all, Seidel’s game is far better, she’s got a big advantage in the service department, she’s much further along in her development and she has the surface advantage here.

If she can tone down the errors and let the one matchup advantage Monnet may have not ruin her day, she should come through here relatively easily a strong majority of the time.

Carole Monnet Recent Form

One win against a Nuria Parrizas-Diaz who has not had a good year is not nearly enough to make me believe Monnet is as competitive in this matchup as the betting markets believe.

More importantly, she has far more matches on her record this year that are majorly concerning. For starters, she doesn’t have much of anything in the way of offensive tennis to her game. Then there’s the fact that she clearly doesn’t have what it takes to consistently compete against top-150 players. Finally, her wins on the surface in the last six months have come exclusively against other players with very little to offer on hard courts and who are primarily underpowered defensive opponents.

Weronika Falkowska, Alice Robbe, Alevtina Ibragimova, Tessah Andrianjafitrimo, Tamira Paszek and Diana Martynov all fall into that category. Tilde Stromquist is the one player I’m not sure about, simply because I’ve never heard of her.

That’s the extent of her wins outside the upset of the Spaniard a week ago in Angers. Now, that’s not to say she’s drawing dead. Seidel can always beat herself with unforced errors, but as I mentioned above, it’s going to be hard for Monnet and her fairly weaponless game to rush Seidel and take time away from her, which helps in trying to get her to trip up.

The hard court record and one dimensional game are too much for me to ignore here. I’ll happily oppose the 23-year-old world No. 236.

Ella Seidel vs Carole Monnet H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two.

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