Friday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Cordoba, Sebastian Baez vs Tomas Barrios Vera
Sebastian Baez vs Tomas Barrios Vera Best Bet: Friday, February 10th
John Isner broke his opponent’s serve for the first time on the season to sink Thursday’s bets. Fair play to him. I’d bet those over again every single time (the closing price tells you how poor those odds were).
For Friday, I want to get into the match between Sebastian Baez and Tomas Barrios Vera in Cordoba.
In this article:
Sebastian Baez vs Tomas Barrios Vera Preview
February 10th, 19:30 (UK Time)
It was a much-needed win in his opening match in Cordoba for Baez against the up-and-coming Luciano Darderi. Like his countryman, Diego Schwartzman, the diminutive Argentine had been mired in a poor run of form for quite some time. Where Schwartzman fizzled out in the second round, Baez is into the quarters to play Chilean wild card Barrios Vera.
The matchup actually works well for Baez, as he looks to ease into clay-court play and build some confidence. Barrios Vera is talented – possessing a strong serve and forehand combination, but not being the most efficient mover and having struggled to close out Bernabe Zapata Miralles in his last match.
He can’t hit through the 22-year-old Buenos Aires native, and is certainly susceptible to being run ragged when Baez is able to find the inside-in forehand to inside-out forehand combination.
Unlike his fellow smaller Argentine, Baez packs a bit of punch in his forehand and isn’t afraid to dictate and control points from that wing. His poor form has also been a product of the surface and calibre of opponent, not so much just missing balls and losing his patented consistent game style.
With neither elite opposition or a surface he isn’t as comfortable on in the way here, Baez should be able to replicate the success he had in the opening round against a decent serving, heavy-hitting player on the other side of the net.
Sebastian Baez vs Tomas Barrios Vera Best Bet
Statistically, Baez still blows his counterpart in this one out of the water. When looking at elo ratings on clay courts, Baez is nearly 250 points ahead of Barrios Vera. I’m not sure I’ve actually handicapped a match with a gulf that large between players.
As for the hold rate plus break rate, Baez leads by about seven percentage points in that department over the course of the last 52 weeks on the dirt. This, despite being a tour regular, rather than a Challenger pro.
All this is to say, with the matchup being in his favour, him being a much more accomplished player and of a higher pedigree, a strong quantitative edge, and the biggest concerns – his form – entering this tournament alleviated with a strong showing in his first match, this handicap isn’t close to being accurate in my books.
Throw in a partisan, home South American crowd, and I’ve got Baez up in the -4.5 to -5 handicap range.
- Selection: Baez -3.5 Games
- Best Odds: 1.89 (Coolbet)
- Stakes: 5/10
Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on February 10th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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