Diego Schwartzman vs Aleksandar Vukic Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, H2H, 5/8/24

Our second preview from the first round of the ATP singles draw from the Internazionali BNL d’Italia comes from the Diego Schwartzman vs Aleksandar Vukic match. With Schwartzman having announced a timeline for his retirement, can the qualifier propel himself to a run in Rome? Or will the hard courter upset the apple cart in the Italian capital? Jon Reid’s Schwartzman vs Vukic is available below!

Vukic has a win probability of 33.3% while Schwartzman is favored to win at 1.40 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Schwartzman vs Vukic Prediction: Rising Schwartzman Still Unproven in 2024

• Prediction: Vukic to win
• Best Odds: 3.10
• Bookmaker: William Hill
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on May 8th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Yet if the odds fit, it must be done. That’s the case here, where the Aussie who prefers playing on quicker courts and different surfaces is undervalued in a matchup that can only come down to reputation.

Vukic hasn’t looked strong on clay this season by any means, but he hasn’t looked as futile on the dirt as he has in the past. Just ask the likes of Chris O’Connell, Gael Monfils, Alexandre Muller, or Sebastian Ofner. He either beat or played all those guys very, very close.

He won’t find the easy winners and his aggressive style is likely to produce a slew of errors, but the key here is that Schwartzman has been pretty poor himself this year.

Never the most offensively capable player, the Argentine has struggled so much of late that we saw him announce that he’ll retire in his home event in Buenos Aires in early 2025. He hasn’t just looked underpowered in 2024, but his normally sound and reliable backhand has been leaking errors consistently.

Then there’s the fact that even if he finds consistent breaks of serve, he simply doesn’t have enough behind his serve to hold off Vukic, who should be able to apply pressure of his own.

Is Schwartzman the favorite here? Sure. Should he be favored to win as often as these odds would indicate? No.

Check out more tennis previews from Rome on the expert insights page.

Diego Schwartzman Recent Form

Now 4-5 on the clay season, many may point to Schwartzman finding his feet in his last few events. Here’s the catch: all four wins have come in qualifying in Rome and Barcelona and the opposition? A lesser-known player who struggles on the Challenger circuit, a known tanker, a fellow aging and underpowered Albert Ramos Vinolas on the decline, and Mikhail Kukushkin who has always hated playing on clay. The last two came in three sets to boot.

There’s still been nothing convincing about the diminutive Argentine’s form, and there’s no way that he should be a dominant favorite, even against someone like Vukic, who typically despises playing on this surface.

Now 142nd in the world, Schwartzman was even seen (jokingly) asking Roland Garros for a wild card on the tournament’s Instagram feed when they posted about his retirement announcement. Schwartzman two years ago would be a deserved favorite of this nature. Not anymore.

Aleksandar Vukic Recent Form

As I alluded to, this isn’t exactly Vukic’s bread and butter either. I mean, if he was more competent on clay courts, we simply wouldn’t see these kinds of odds against a Schwartzman struggling as much as he is.

That said, this isn’t necessarily about how strong Vukic is so much as the fact that he’s capable enough to keep things close.

That’s the entire reason I think he should be valued at over 35% in the matchup, as this is more of an odds evaluation than a prediction.

Diego Schwartzman vs Aleksandar Vukic H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone head-to-head encounter between these two was won last summer by Schwartzman in Toronto to move into the main draw. It was that tournament (where he qualified but lost in the opening round) and the run in Shanghai that had the tennis community wondering if perhaps he’d make a push back up the rankings.

It wasn’t to be and he seems to be down and out just as bad, if not worse, than he was last season.

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